Todays Suggested bets
Matrix bets
Newbury
12:45
Zoffee 3 units win 6/1
William H Bonney 2 units win 22/1
2:25
San Benedito 5 units win 8/1
3:00
Lisnagar Oscar 2 units win 16/1
3:35
Dell 'Arca 5 units win 8/1
Best Bets
Newbury
2:25
San Benedito 0.5pts win 8/1
3:35
Dell 'Arca 0.5pts win 8/1
I suspect that the markets would have coped with me issuing
at 9:00 this morning - but it’s impossible to know until after the
event.
That said, there was minimal movement in the prices of the ones I was interested in, so no real downside to delaying an hour…
I quite like todays racing - I always find it easier when there is just one meeting to focus on - and a few nice races (even if I have tomorrow and Sunday, in the back of my mind !).
The biggest issue is that the main races are very competitive (which is why the prices have stood up).
I’ve had a go at all 4 of the races with good sized fields - here’s hoping I can land on a winner (or two !)
Newbury
I was never going to get involved in the opener. I would expect Flinteur Sacre to prove himself too good for his rivals - but we won’t get rich supporting him !
I was in 2 minds about getting involved in the novice handicap chase (12:45) - so I’ve hedged my bets and just risked a few Matrix units.
I think the race will probably be won by the best jumper.
If either Editeur de Guye or Zoffee weren’t running, I’d be particularly keen on the other one !
I am fearful the might mess things up for each other - but that may not happen…
Either way, I think the sound jumping Zoffee is worth a small risk at 6/1, in receipt of the 4 year old allowance.
If they do go off too fast, then it could play into the hands of William H Bonney.
He will be ridden out the back, and if the race happens to fall apart, he could be the one to pick up the pieces (he’ll love the ground - and not all of his rivals will).
I toyed with a small bet on Diocletion in the 1:15 - but eventually decided against it.
If he settles, then he has a chance, based on flat form - but the small field won’t help him, in that respect.
The market says it’s between Bothwell Bridge and Bravemansgame - and it may be right…
I’ve no idea how the novice chase will pan out (1:50).
Fiddlerontheroof should probably win - but good ground would be a worry (particularly at the price).
Caribean Boy is possibly a bit of value at 11/4 - but I’m guessing…
I think it is worth taking a risk on San Benedito in the 2:25.
That was my initial feeling - however, I then cooled a little on him.
That was mainly because I can see a host of potential dangers - but the bottom line remains, he is a well handicapped horse running in ideal conditions.
He should go close.
Sully Doc AA is a danger (and the support for him reflects that); as is Clondaw Castle.
I took 11 on the latter, on the exchanges - and at that price I would have saved on him, in the Matrix.
However he’s just 7/1 with the bookmakers - and that’s about right…
I can’t resist a small play on Lisnagar Oscar in the long distance hurdle (3:00).
As the current champion stayer, it’s crazy that he’s a 16/1 shot (bigger on the exchanges).
I acknowledge that he may have been flattered by last years result etc. - though I quite fancied him that day - and he won well.
He’s only 7 - will love conditions - and will be fit following his run at Wetherby.
If I don’t at least cover him in the Matrix, I’ll kick myself if he does win.
The price on McFabulous is crazy in a different way - but that makes me very wary of him (as he’s clearly being extremely well supported).
Paisley Park at almost 4/1 is also a bit daft - though I can still resist him !
Honest Vic is the other one of real interest - but at half the price of Lisnagar, I’ll decide to just stick with the latter.
If Hill Sixteen runs to the same level of form that he did at Ffos Las 9 days ago, he will win the 3:35.
However, you couldn’t get a more different test - and it was only 9 days ago !
If he doesn’t run to that level of form, then I think Dell ‘Arca will win.
He’s in the form of his life - and will have perfect conditions.
I don’t really care that he’s 11 - as that didn’t stop him winning 3 weeks ago !
The only doubt in my mind, is whether he might have gone over the top - but I’m hopeful that David Pipe has been able to keep him at a peak, for this one last run.
He’s a good bet.
That said, there was minimal movement in the prices of the ones I was interested in, so no real downside to delaying an hour…
I quite like todays racing - I always find it easier when there is just one meeting to focus on - and a few nice races (even if I have tomorrow and Sunday, in the back of my mind !).
The biggest issue is that the main races are very competitive (which is why the prices have stood up).
I’ve had a go at all 4 of the races with good sized fields - here’s hoping I can land on a winner (or two !)
Newbury
I was never going to get involved in the opener. I would expect Flinteur Sacre to prove himself too good for his rivals - but we won’t get rich supporting him !
I was in 2 minds about getting involved in the novice handicap chase (12:45) - so I’ve hedged my bets and just risked a few Matrix units.
I think the race will probably be won by the best jumper.
If either Editeur de Guye or Zoffee weren’t running, I’d be particularly keen on the other one !
I am fearful the might mess things up for each other - but that may not happen…
Either way, I think the sound jumping Zoffee is worth a small risk at 6/1, in receipt of the 4 year old allowance.
If they do go off too fast, then it could play into the hands of William H Bonney.
He will be ridden out the back, and if the race happens to fall apart, he could be the one to pick up the pieces (he’ll love the ground - and not all of his rivals will).
I toyed with a small bet on Diocletion in the 1:15 - but eventually decided against it.
If he settles, then he has a chance, based on flat form - but the small field won’t help him, in that respect.
The market says it’s between Bothwell Bridge and Bravemansgame - and it may be right…
I’ve no idea how the novice chase will pan out (1:50).
Fiddlerontheroof should probably win - but good ground would be a worry (particularly at the price).
Caribean Boy is possibly a bit of value at 11/4 - but I’m guessing…
I think it is worth taking a risk on San Benedito in the 2:25.
That was my initial feeling - however, I then cooled a little on him.
That was mainly because I can see a host of potential dangers - but the bottom line remains, he is a well handicapped horse running in ideal conditions.
He should go close.
Sully Doc AA is a danger (and the support for him reflects that); as is Clondaw Castle.
I took 11 on the latter, on the exchanges - and at that price I would have saved on him, in the Matrix.
However he’s just 7/1 with the bookmakers - and that’s about right…
I can’t resist a small play on Lisnagar Oscar in the long distance hurdle (3:00).
As the current champion stayer, it’s crazy that he’s a 16/1 shot (bigger on the exchanges).
I acknowledge that he may have been flattered by last years result etc. - though I quite fancied him that day - and he won well.
He’s only 7 - will love conditions - and will be fit following his run at Wetherby.
If I don’t at least cover him in the Matrix, I’ll kick myself if he does win.
The price on McFabulous is crazy in a different way - but that makes me very wary of him (as he’s clearly being extremely well supported).
Paisley Park at almost 4/1 is also a bit daft - though I can still resist him !
Honest Vic is the other one of real interest - but at half the price of Lisnagar, I’ll decide to just stick with the latter.
If Hill Sixteen runs to the same level of form that he did at Ffos Las 9 days ago, he will win the 3:35.
However, you couldn’t get a more different test - and it was only 9 days ago !
If he doesn’t run to that level of form, then I think Dell ‘Arca will win.
He’s in the form of his life - and will have perfect conditions.
I don’t really care that he’s 11 - as that didn’t stop him winning 3 weeks ago !
The only doubt in my mind, is whether he might have gone over the top - but I’m hopeful that David Pipe has been able to keep him at a peak, for this one last run.
He’s a good bet.
No comments:
Post a Comment