The ground at Newbury this afternoon, was definitely on the quick side - and with no overnight rain forecast, I would expect it to be the same tomorrow.
That will help with the narrowing down of fields - but it’s information available to everyone, so it won’t help with prices !
In addition to Newbury tomorrow, there is a fair card at Newcastle - and I’ll preview the 2 main races.
It’s also the opening day of the Winter festival at Fairyhouse.
In truth, there are limited betting opportunities there - the exception being the handicap chase at 12:30.
Whilst there are a couple of good races at Doncaster - but the early markets will be weak.
If I find anything in those, I’ll advise on the Live thread, tomorrow afternoon…
Finally, just a reminder the I’ll post the suggested bets for tomorrow, after 9:00 in the morning.
I'll be focused on Newbury and Newcastle, and the markets for the races there, should be sufficiently robust by that time.
Newbury
12:10
This is an interesting looking race - though there is probably too much guesswork required to consider it for serious betting…
Mrs Hyde sets the standard on her defeat of Verdana Blue at Wetherby.
However, the runner-up didn’t run to form that day - and Mrs Hyde has to give most of her rivals 5lb tomorrow.
She’s also been on the go for quite a while - and whilst there may be one last good run in her, it’s also possible that she may have had enough.
It’s hard to quantify a number of her rivals - but one who looks particularly interesting, is Politesse.
She’s trained in Ireland by Lorna Fowler - so it would seem significant that she’s been sent over for this race (particularly at the current time).
She’s only run twice over hurdles - and whilst she was a little disappointing on her seasonal debut at Down Royal, last month, she may well have needed that run.
Certainly the form of her hurdling debut last season, when she beat Fakiera, reads very well, as that one won a grade 3 contest last weekend.
Her bumper form was also high class, so I suspect she is actually the one to beat…
Ahorsewithnoname, has her first run for Nicky Henderson, having been trained previously by Brian Ellison. She showed a fair level of ability both over jumps and on the flat, and could well improve for the stable switch.
Similarly, Estelle ma Belle has just her second run for Paul Nichols, having won a moderate race at Ffos Las, on debut for him. She too could be a big improver…
Half chances can be given to all of the other runners - so with limited form to go on, this probably has to be a watching race…
12:40
I was really taken with the chasing debut of Kalooki, when he won at Newbury just over 3 weeks ago.
That was in a fair race - but he looked different class to his rivals and could be called the winner from a long way out.
The runner up, House Island, won at Ludlow this week - so the form looks decent.
Assuming he puts in a similar round of jumping tomorrow, then he looks the one to beat.
However, he’s not favourite for the race, as that honour falls to Next Destination.
He was a dual grade 1 winning hurdler in Ireland a couple of seasons back - and whilst he missed all of last season, he showed up very well on his debut for Paul Nichols, in the West Yorkshire hurdle at Wetherby last month.
That run suggests all the old ability remains - and switched to fences tomorrow, he will be a tough nut to crack, if his jumping holds up.
Hold the Note has much more chasing experience than the top 2 in the market - and was very unlucky not to win a chase last season.
I tipped him twice - and on both occasions, he ran really well - particularly when a close second to Two for Gold in a grade 2 chase at Warwick.
He also finished third to Imperial Aura at the Cheltenham festival - and whilst he was a bit disappointing on his seasonal return at Wetherby, he still sets a fair standard.
That said, I’ll be a bit disappointed if neither of the markets leaders prove his superior…
It’s a similar story with both Southfield Stone and Acey Milan: both are decent performers - but they shouldn’t really be good enough to win.
One for the Team is potentially more interesting.
He was sent off fav for the race won by Kalooki, but was well beaten when unseating his jockey at the last.
He may well improve for the run - though he’ll need to, if he’s going to reverse form with the winner.
1:15
Kapcorse won this race 2 years ago - and has a chance of following up tomorrow.
He’ll be racing from a mark 10lb higher - and hasn’t run for nearly 2 years.
However, he won by 10 lengths that day - and I’ll be surprised if he’s not close to full fitness tomorrow.
Interestingly, the 2 horses who chased him home, both oppose again.
Brelan D’as is 4lb better off for the 10 length beating; whilst The Bay Birch is 3lb worse off, having finished a further couple of lengths back in third.
A lot of water has ofcourse gone under the bridge subsequently - but I’d still expect Kapcorse to confirm the form.
Cap de Nord has a chance.
He finished fifth in the corresponding race last season, as a 6 year old.
He ‘s a pound lower in the weights tomorrow - and is now a more mature horse.
He ran a fair race on his seasonal debut at Wincanton, and provided he builds on that run, I would expect him to go well.
Doctor Drex was impressive when winning on his seasonal debut at Ascot 12 months ago. He disappointed on his 2 subsequent runs and is now 9lb higher - but if he bounces back to the Ascot form, he would have a chance.
Similar comments apply to Rockys Treasure.
He was a decent novice a couple of seasons ago, when he was rated 149.
He was pulled up on his 2 outings last season - but was well backed on his seasonal debut last month, only to unseat his jockey at the first fence.
The support that day, suggested he could be back near his best - and despite top weight, a rating of 141 doesn’t appear overly harsh.
1:50
Howling Milan would have won the corresponding race 12 months ago, if he’d not fallen at the last - and he must have a fair chance of gaining compensation tomorrow, from a mark 2lb lower.
In fairness, tomorrows race does look a bit stronger - and Howling Milan has shown nothing in 3 subsequent runs.
However, 2 of those were over fences - and returned to hurdles tomorrow - with first time cheek pieces applied, I’ll be surprised if he doesn’t give it a good go from the front…
Tea Clipper is an understandable favourite, having won well on his debut in the Tote Silver trophy at Chepstow.
He has to run from mark 7lb higher tomorrow - but he’s a progressive horse and that may not stop him.
He very much looks the one to beat.
Champagne Platinum is interesting on his return to hurdles, after spending last season over fences.
He was a bit disappointing over the bigger obstacles - but he’s still only 6 and is probably well handicapped with a rating of 137.
His owner/stablemate, Rathlin, is another one of real interest.
He was sent off at 11/10 for the grade 1 Tolworth hurdle, 2 seasons ago - but disappointed.
He showed nothing in 2 runs last season - but it’s hard to believe he’s not a fair bit better than his current rating of 133.
With Nico de Boinville riding Champagne Platinum, the assumption is that he’s Nicky Hendersons number one - but both he and Rathlin, are fascinating contenders…
2:25
I was quite keen on Milkwood in this - and put him up as an ante-post bet on Tuesday.
He was 8/1 at the time - which looked fair value - but he’s likely to be around half that price tomorrow morning, which reduces the appeal some what !
Ofcouse it won’t stop him winning - and I do think he has a very good chance.
However, plenty have picked up on the strength of the form of his run last time, in the Welsh champion hurdle and he’s been backed accordingly…
Maries Rock heads the market - and she could be hard to beat.
She’s unbeaten in 3 runs (2 over hurdles) - and looked very impressive when winning a listed race at Taunton, last time.
However that was nearly a year ago - and it’s hard to gauge the strength of the form.
Her mark of 141 doesn’t appear overly generous for what she’s achieved - and I couldn’t support her at 6/4.
The issue with Botox Has and Thyme White is that they are both 4 year olds, taking on older horses.
They will be conceding maturity to their rivals - but don’t get any weight allowance to compensate.
On the flip side, both animals have looked decidedly useful in recording wins this season - but they will need to improve again, if they are to follow up tomorrow.
Sebastapol is the final one of interest.
He was a big improver last season - and his win in the Scottish country hurdle on his final outing was particularly meritorious as he didn’t seem to appreciate the tight track.
I suspect he’ll be better suited to Newbury - but off a 6lb higher mark and on his seasonal debut, it won’t be easy for him…
3:00
The Ladbroke trophy looks is open as you would expect - though the likely quick ground won't suit all of the runners.
I reckon that Aye Right should just about be favourite, on the back of a fine third in the Charlie Hall chase at Wetherby.
He has 5 lengths to make up with Vindication on that run - but is 7lb better off, so there should be little between them.
Quick ground could be an issue for him, as his best form is on soft - though horses often get away with one run on it…
Black Op would certainly be of interest on softer ground.
He was top class as a novice hurdler - and whilst he’s not reached the same heights over fences, that’s reflected in a mark of 150.
He has the natural ability to be a fair bit better than that - so if everything did come together, he would be hard to beat.
Copperhead looked the ideal sort for this race, when he won at Ascot last season.
He was sent off at just 6/1 for the RSA chase - but was well beaten when he fell at the final fence.
He was even more disappointing when pulled up over hurdles on his seasonal reappearance at Wetherby and will need to leave that run way behind.
He may do that - but compensation for taking a risk, isn’t really in the price…
Cloth Cap has been waiting nearly 2 years to run on decent ground - and he finally gets his chance tomorrow.
The last time it happened, he finished a close up third in the Scottish National - when just a 7 year old.
He runs off a 2lb higher mark tomorrow - but that should be offset by greater maturity.
First time cheek pieces is an interesting move - as is the booking of Tom Scudamore, who will have to get down to 10 stone.
Of the outsiders, then I could see Danny Whizzbang and Ardlethen both running well.
In theory, the ground should be too quick for Danny - but I can’t see Paul Nichols risking him, if that is the case.
I doubt Ardlethen will quite have the class to win - but I could certainly see him running well and maybe finishing in the first half dozen…
3:35
Ibleo heads the market for this race, on the back of his painful defeat on the opening day of my season, when I made him a Best bet.
He just couldn’t hold off Amoola Gold that day - but lost little in defeat (aside from our hard earned !).
A 5lb rise in his rating is perfectly fair - particularly as the winner franked the form on his next run.
However, I do wonder whether Ibleo will be as effective on tomorrows much quicker ground (in fact, I wonder if he’ll run).
Moonlighter will have no issue with the ground - and he went very close to landing the Haldon Gold Cup on his seasonal return.
That was a particularly good run - and whilst he too has been raised 5lb for his effort in defeat, I would say that was more than warranted.
If he runs to the same level of form tomorrow, he’s the one to beat.
Zanza is interesting as a novice in an open handicap - particularly as his best run over hurdles was achieved on this course, in last seasons Betfair hurdle.
It will be a big ask for him however, against much more seasoned rivals.
The Russian Doyen is another one who I made a Best bet last time - in the Paddy Power gold cup.
That was a bit too much for him - but he showed some promise and it’s interesting to see him cut back in trip tomorrow.
First time cheek pieces have presumably been applied to sharpen him up - and he looks well handicapped off a mark of 135.
Newcastle
2:05
The ‘Fighting Fifth’ sees the seasonal reappearance of last years Champion hurdler, Epatante.
She was a comfortable 3 length winner at Cheltenham in March - as as a result of that win, is top rated in tomorrows race, by 3lb.
As she also receives a 7lb sex allowance from all of her rivals - she effectively has at least 10lb in hand on official ratings.
With one pound equal to one length (roughly), she can afford to be a bit below her best and still win.
In truth, I wouldn’t expect her to be much below her best - and whilst it is a relatively competitive field, she should still win.
More interesting could be the race for the runners up spot.
Sceau Royal has looked very good back over hurdles this season; whilst Silver Streak is the other obvious contender.
Ground conditions will suit both horses - so it’s not easy to choose between them.
Cornerstone Lad won this race last year - and following a couple of runs on the flat should be fit. He is arguably the value call to finish second.
That said, he would be much happier on softer ground.
At an even bigger price, No So Sleepy could also be interesting - particularly if he gets an uncontested lead.
He missed the break on his final 2 starts last season - but the smaller field tomorrow will help, and at very least he should represent a fair back to lay IR opportunity.
3:15
I expected Pym to be a short priced favourite for this - and in which case, I would have been quite keen to take him on.
I’ve not got an issue with the horse - and it’s hard to argue with his current rating.
However, it’s been achieved in small field conditions races - and this bigger field handicap will provide a very different test.
He may be up to the task - but then again, he may not…
A price of 7/2 is arguably still a little on short side - though this doesn’t look the deepest of races…
Whatmore is the one I like most - but he’s a quirky character and has been backed into favouritism.
In a way that’s understandable as he probably should have won a slightly better race, last time.
However, his tendency to hang left cost him ground at right handed Ascot.
He’s been raised 4lb for finishing second that day - so his task will be tougher tomorrow.
That said, he is still the one to beat.
The Butcher Said is interesting as a novice in open company and he doesn’t look badly handicapped.
He ran well last time, when third to The Big Breakaway at Cheltenham - and that form gives him every chance tomorrow.
Brave Eagle is more exposed than the 3 market leaders - though he has only run over fences 8 times.
He’s won on 4 of those occasions - so has a very good strike rate.
A couple of mid field runs in very hot races, and a below par seasonal debut, have seen his mark drop to the point where he can be competitive - and he will love the quick ground.
Cool Mix is the most interesting of those at big prices.
He’ll need to improve if he is to defy his current mark - but a step up in trip is an interesting move, and he may well respond positively to it.
2:05
The ‘Fighting Fifth’ sees the seasonal reappearance of last years Champion hurdler, Epatante.
She was a comfortable 3 length winner at Cheltenham in March - as as a result of that win, is top rated in tomorrows race, by 3lb.
As she also receives a 7lb sex allowance from all of her rivals - she effectively has at least 10lb in hand on official ratings.
With one pound equal to one length (roughly), she can afford to be a bit below her best and still win.
In truth, I wouldn’t expect her to be much below her best - and whilst it is a relatively competitive field, she should still win.
More interesting could be the race for the runners up spot.
Sceau Royal has looked very good back over hurdles this season; whilst Silver Streak is the other obvious contender.
Ground conditions will suit both horses - so it’s not easy to choose between them.
Cornerstone Lad won this race last year - and following a couple of runs on the flat should be fit. He is arguably the value call to finish second.
That said, he would be much happier on softer ground.
At an even bigger price, No So Sleepy could also be interesting - particularly if he gets an uncontested lead.
He missed the break on his final 2 starts last season - but the smaller field tomorrow will help, and at very least he should represent a fair back to lay IR opportunity.
3:15
I expected Pym to be a short priced favourite for this - and in which case, I would have been quite keen to take him on.
I’ve not got an issue with the horse - and it’s hard to argue with his current rating.
However, it’s been achieved in small field conditions races - and this bigger field handicap will provide a very different test.
He may be up to the task - but then again, he may not…
A price of 7/2 is arguably still a little on short side - though this doesn’t look the deepest of races…
Whatmore is the one I like most - but he’s a quirky character and has been backed into favouritism.
In a way that’s understandable as he probably should have won a slightly better race, last time.
However, his tendency to hang left cost him ground at right handed Ascot.
He’s been raised 4lb for finishing second that day - so his task will be tougher tomorrow.
That said, he is still the one to beat.
The Butcher Said is interesting as a novice in open company and he doesn’t look badly handicapped.
He ran well last time, when third to The Big Breakaway at Cheltenham - and that form gives him every chance tomorrow.
Brave Eagle is more exposed than the 3 market leaders - though he has only run over fences 8 times.
He’s won on 4 of those occasions - so has a very good strike rate.
A couple of mid field runs in very hot races, and a below par seasonal debut, have seen his mark drop to the point where he can be competitive - and he will love the quick ground.
Cool Mix is the most interesting of those at big prices.
He’ll need to improve if he is to defy his current mark - but a step up in trip is an interesting move, and he may well respond positively to it.
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