Todays Suggested bets
Matrix bets
Newbury
1:15
Cap de Nord 6 units win 11/1
Doctor Dex 4 units win 12/1
Kapcorse 3 units win 13/2
Rockys Treasure 2 units win 12/1
The Bay Birch 2 units win 20/1
1:50
Howling Milan 2 units win 11/1
Champagne Platinum 2 units win 17/2
3:00
Cloth Cap 5 units win 10/1
Copperhead 2 units win 14/1
Black Op 2 units win 10/1
Danny Whizzbang 1 unit win 25/1
3:35
The Russian Doyen 5 units win 5/1
Newcastle
2:05
Not so Sleepy 2 units win 33/1
Best Bets
Newbury
1:15
Cap de Nord 0.5pt win 11/1
3:00
Cloth Cap 0.5pt win 10/1
3:35
The Russian Doyen 0.5pt 5/1
With it hard to see many angles in the conditions races, I’ve
had to focus on the handicaps this afternoon.
They are generally big fields - which makes them riskier to get involved with.
However, that’s where the Matrix should help - and I’ve fully deployed it (pretty much !) on one race - and with half deployment on another.
There are 3 Best bets on the day - plus a few more speculative ones at bigger prices, for the Matrix.
Fingers crossed for a decent day ahead !
Newbury
Despite the unknowns, I may well have taken a risk on Politesse in the opener, if I could have got a price.
She was 5/1 last night - but 9/4 is too short.
I do think she’ll win - but it’s more an intuitive feeling, than one I can quantify and that makes it hard to suggest getting involved.
The price has also gone on Kalooki in the 12:40.
I think he’s most likely winner - but there is no margin in a quote of 7/4.
One for the Team is a bit of theoretical value at 7/1 - but I’m not really sure that I want to be suggesting a horse that I don’t think will actually win…
The 1:15 sees me (almost) deploy the full matrix for the first time this season.
It’s a suitable race because I’m happy to oppose half the field (approx 10% chance of winning) - and I can then split the other half again, and look to support the ones I fancy most.
I therefore end up with 25% of the field, which I think have a near 50% chance of winning.
Top of my list, is Cap de Nord.
He ran well in this race last year - and I suspect he has been targeted at a repeat.
I’ll be surprised/disappointed, if he doesn’t go close.
He is slightly vulnerable from a win perspective - which is where the Matrix works well.
Doctor Dex is a potential danger, as I wouldn’t be surprised to see him put in an improved effort on his seasonal debut; Kapcorse strikes me as the best of the market leaders; whilst Rockys Treasure and The Bay Birch are both potentially dangerous lurkers.
If Cap de Nord does come up a bit short, then hopefully one of the 4 will take advantage.
Tea Clipper is the most likely winner of the 1:50 - but he’s too short at 11/4.
Instead, I’ll take a small risk for the Matrix on Howling Milan and Champagne Platinum.
There’s a chance that the former could steal the race from the front in his first time blinkers - he’s certainly well handicapped based on his run in this race, 12 months ago.
The case for Champagne Platinum isn’t as solid: but he’s unexposed and could still be open to a fair amount of improvement.
With his connections, he is worth chancing.
Milkwood was obviously the one of interest in the 2:25 - but again, the price has gone.
In truth, whilst he strikes me as the most solid option in the field, he is vulnerable, from a win perspective.
Maries Rock, Botox Has and Thyme White have all got a chance; whilst the price of Sebastapol, has almost reached the point where it’s worth taking a chance on his fitness.
On balance however, it is probably a race best watched (unless you backed Milkwood, earlier in the week).
I quite like Cloth Cap in the Ladbroke Trophy (3:00).
Everything seems to have fallen right for him - with the ground ideal and him just sneaking into the handicap with 10st.
He’ll have no issue with the big field (which isn’t the case for all of the runners) - and the fitting of cheek pieces, suggest real intent.
I would expect a very big run.
Black Op is potentially the best handicapped horse in the race - and whilst I have concerns about the field size and ground, he is worth covering for the Matrix.
Copperhead would have been the pick, prior to his disappointing seasonal debut - and whilst that run is a worry, his price has drifted to the point where he is worth a small risk.
Danny Whizzbang is also worth covering.
He’s similar to Black Op in that the ground and field size could be issues - but he’s potentially very well handicapped.
It was a bit disappointing to see Ibleo withdrawn from the finale (3:35) - as I was keen to oppose him on the ground.
It’s also been a bit disappointing to see the price crash on The Russian Doyen (he was 18/1, earlier in the week !).
However, the fact remains that he is a potentially very well handicapped horse - who could be perfectly suited by a drop in trip and a forceful ride.
I particularly like the fact that Harry Cobden is in the saddle - and if he can get the horse into a rhythm up front, he could be hard to pass.
Newcastle
Epatante should win the Fighting Fifth (2:05) - but if there is to be a shock, I think Not So Sleepy is the most likely to provide it.
There’s a chance that the big guns will play cat and mouse - and Paddy Brennan might be able to slip the field.
Certainly, if Not so Sleepy is 10 lengths clear turning in, then even Epatante might struggle to run him down.
At 33/1, he’s worth a small risk for the Matrix.
I can’t see an angle in the 3:15 - though there may be one, come the off.
Pym is now 5.5 on the exchanges. He may get an uncontested lead and if so, could be hard to pass.
On the flip side, Whatmore is too short at 3/1.
I’ll be interested to see how the market develops…
They are generally big fields - which makes them riskier to get involved with.
However, that’s where the Matrix should help - and I’ve fully deployed it (pretty much !) on one race - and with half deployment on another.
There are 3 Best bets on the day - plus a few more speculative ones at bigger prices, for the Matrix.
Fingers crossed for a decent day ahead !
Newbury
Despite the unknowns, I may well have taken a risk on Politesse in the opener, if I could have got a price.
She was 5/1 last night - but 9/4 is too short.
I do think she’ll win - but it’s more an intuitive feeling, than one I can quantify and that makes it hard to suggest getting involved.
The price has also gone on Kalooki in the 12:40.
I think he’s most likely winner - but there is no margin in a quote of 7/4.
One for the Team is a bit of theoretical value at 7/1 - but I’m not really sure that I want to be suggesting a horse that I don’t think will actually win…
The 1:15 sees me (almost) deploy the full matrix for the first time this season.
It’s a suitable race because I’m happy to oppose half the field (approx 10% chance of winning) - and I can then split the other half again, and look to support the ones I fancy most.
I therefore end up with 25% of the field, which I think have a near 50% chance of winning.
Top of my list, is Cap de Nord.
He ran well in this race last year - and I suspect he has been targeted at a repeat.
I’ll be surprised/disappointed, if he doesn’t go close.
He is slightly vulnerable from a win perspective - which is where the Matrix works well.
Doctor Dex is a potential danger, as I wouldn’t be surprised to see him put in an improved effort on his seasonal debut; Kapcorse strikes me as the best of the market leaders; whilst Rockys Treasure and The Bay Birch are both potentially dangerous lurkers.
If Cap de Nord does come up a bit short, then hopefully one of the 4 will take advantage.
Tea Clipper is the most likely winner of the 1:50 - but he’s too short at 11/4.
Instead, I’ll take a small risk for the Matrix on Howling Milan and Champagne Platinum.
There’s a chance that the former could steal the race from the front in his first time blinkers - he’s certainly well handicapped based on his run in this race, 12 months ago.
The case for Champagne Platinum isn’t as solid: but he’s unexposed and could still be open to a fair amount of improvement.
With his connections, he is worth chancing.
Milkwood was obviously the one of interest in the 2:25 - but again, the price has gone.
In truth, whilst he strikes me as the most solid option in the field, he is vulnerable, from a win perspective.
Maries Rock, Botox Has and Thyme White have all got a chance; whilst the price of Sebastapol, has almost reached the point where it’s worth taking a chance on his fitness.
On balance however, it is probably a race best watched (unless you backed Milkwood, earlier in the week).
I quite like Cloth Cap in the Ladbroke Trophy (3:00).
Everything seems to have fallen right for him - with the ground ideal and him just sneaking into the handicap with 10st.
He’ll have no issue with the big field (which isn’t the case for all of the runners) - and the fitting of cheek pieces, suggest real intent.
I would expect a very big run.
Black Op is potentially the best handicapped horse in the race - and whilst I have concerns about the field size and ground, he is worth covering for the Matrix.
Copperhead would have been the pick, prior to his disappointing seasonal debut - and whilst that run is a worry, his price has drifted to the point where he is worth a small risk.
Danny Whizzbang is also worth covering.
He’s similar to Black Op in that the ground and field size could be issues - but he’s potentially very well handicapped.
It was a bit disappointing to see Ibleo withdrawn from the finale (3:35) - as I was keen to oppose him on the ground.
It’s also been a bit disappointing to see the price crash on The Russian Doyen (he was 18/1, earlier in the week !).
However, the fact remains that he is a potentially very well handicapped horse - who could be perfectly suited by a drop in trip and a forceful ride.
I particularly like the fact that Harry Cobden is in the saddle - and if he can get the horse into a rhythm up front, he could be hard to pass.
Newcastle
Epatante should win the Fighting Fifth (2:05) - but if there is to be a shock, I think Not So Sleepy is the most likely to provide it.
There’s a chance that the big guns will play cat and mouse - and Paddy Brennan might be able to slip the field.
Certainly, if Not so Sleepy is 10 lengths clear turning in, then even Epatante might struggle to run him down.
At 33/1, he’s worth a small risk for the Matrix.
I can’t see an angle in the 3:15 - though there may be one, come the off.
Pym is now 5.5 on the exchanges. He may get an uncontested lead and if so, could be hard to pass.
On the flip side, Whatmore is too short at 3/1.
I’ll be interested to see how the market develops…
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