Nov 29th - Preview for Fairyhouse & Leicester

 With 3 grade 1 events, I had high expectations for tomorrows card at Fairyhouse - but I’ve ended up disappointed… 

There are odds on favourites in all 3 races - and I can’t see me wanting to take any of them on.

In fairness, the graded races are supported by a couple of handicaps - so they may offer opportunities.
That said, the handicap hurdle at 3:05, has the look of a hornets nest !

In addition to the action at Fairyhouse, there are also 3 meetings taking place in the UK.
However, it is generally low class fayre.

There is a listed chase at Carlisle - though it’s not very competitive.
As a result, the most suitable betting race of the day, may prove to be the veterans chase which is being run at Leicester

I do like my veterans chases - and tomorrows may just save the day !  

 
Fairyhouse

12:00

I’m unlikely to suggest any bets in the opening mares handicap chase - so I’ll keep the preview brief !

In an open looking race, the one that catches my eye, is the Henry de Bromhead trained Ellie Mac.
She’s been running over hurdles recently - managing to win on her penultimate outing at Punchestown.
She followed that up with a fair effort in a listed hurdle at Limerick.
She is just as capable over fences, as she is over hurdles - and looks fairly handicapped on a mark of 123.
Good ground seems important to her - and provided she gets that, I would give her a decent chance.
In truth it looks a pretty open race, with Emily Moon appearing the one to beat…

12:30

I’ve not really much of an idea what will win this juvenile hurdle - though in fairness, I doubt many people have !
Favourite Saint Sam makes his debut for Willie Mullins, having won twice in the French provinces.
He could easily be good enough to win…
The second and third favs are trained by Gordon Elliott and Joseph O’Brien respectively - and have both won their only start over hurdles.
Needless to say, each is open to a good deal of improvement.
If there is a value bet in the race, it is probably Gordon Elliotts second string, Glorious Zoff.
He’s run twice over hurdles - winning on the first occasion before disappointing at Sedgefield, when heavily odds on.
You would need to forgive him that run - but the figures he clocked first time out, give him every chance.
That said, this will certainly be a watching race, officially speaking !

1:05

The first grade 1 of the afternoon, is in theory the most competitive, as the favourite is only a 4/6 chance !
Ballyadam was hugely impressive when winning on his hurdling debut at Down Royal, at the end of last month.
In truth, he’s favourite (or at least, such a short priced favourite), primarily on reputation - but the reality is, his reputation has put off many of his potential challengers…
Cask Mate is second favourite - but I’ll be surprised if he turns out to be a grade 1 horse; and whilst N’golo did well to win at Navan last time, it was his stamina that got him home in front that day, in desperate conditions.
I’d be surprised if he confirmed the form with runner up, Annexation - and I’d be even more surprised if Annexation was a grade 1 horse !
Outside the top 4 in the betting, things get even worse…
In short, Ballyadam is likely to win this, at least in part, because his rivals are just not good enough…

1:35

Whilst in a way, with only 4 runners, the turn out for the Drinmore is disappointing - that is offset by the fact that one of the runners is Envoi Allen.
Unbeaten in 8 runs under rules - and already a dual Cheltenham festival winner - he very much looks the next NH superstar.
What’s particularly impressive about him, is that nothing he does is flashy.
He’s just a workmanlike horse - who happens to be a lot better than all of his rivals !
He travels nicely through his races; jumps economically - and finds stamina when required.
He’s already unbackable for this years Marsh Chase (his Cheltenham festival target) - so if you do want to back him, I would suggest an ante-post wager for the 2022 Gold cup (you read it here first - probably !).
Anyway, suffice to say he should win tomorrow - and will hopefully be a joy to watch.
Most interesting from a betting perspective, is what will follow him home.
That looks quite open, which could make Coko Beach attractive.
He finished second to Pencilfuloflead on his chasing debut at Galway - and that one franked the form last time, when beating Latest Exhibition.
Coko Beach is likely to be the outsider in the w/o the fav market - and at 3/1 or bigger, could be worth a small play.

2:05

After 4 races in which I’m highly unlikely to get involved - one which I may chance my arm in !
That said, with 20 runners - and 3m5f to cover, finding the winner won’t be easy !

Mon Lino finished runner up in the race last year - and looks to have been laid out to go one better.
However, it was a relatively weak renewal of the race - and he is 3lb higher tomorrow.
I would expect him to run well - but he is vulnerable…
Scoir Mear is in particularly good form at the moment - and followed up a win at Wexford, with a third place to The Jam Man in the Troytown at Navan.
That’s top class handicap form - and whilst it’s a bit puzzling why he’s never previously tackled a marathon trip (he’s now 10), if he does stay, he’s probably the one to beat.
Voix de Tiep is the sole runner in the race for Willie Mullins - and has to be respected simply for that reason.
He’s an odd one, in that he’s stepping up in trip by over a mile on the furthest he’s ever previously raced - but I wouldn’t want to bet that Willie has made a mistake.
I quite fancied the horse last time, on his seasonal debut in a hot handicap at Punchestown - but he ran as if needing the race.
If that run has brought him on, then I wouldn’t be surprised to see him run well.
By contrast, Gordon Elliott runs 8 - and its not easy to figure out his number 1…
Jack Kennedy rides Monbeg Notorious, with Keith Donoghue is on Roaring Bull.
A case can be made for both.
A case can also be made for Out Sam.
I put him up as a Best bet in the Cork National last time - and he ran pretty well to finish fifth.
He’s the second reserve - but if he gets a run, he should go well.
The final 2 on my short (!) list, are Brace Yourself and Cooldine Bog.
Both are 7 year olds, stepping up to this trip for the first time.
Brace Yourself finished third in a a grade 2 last time (ahead of Court Maid); whilst Cooldine Bog stayed on into sixth in the Troytown.
Both would need to show improved form in order to win tomorrow - but that’s quite possible…

2:35

After the challenges of the previous race, it’s back to what should be, more predictable grade 1 action…

A bit like Epatante today, Honeysuckle is the best horse in the race, on official ratings - but gets the 7lb mares allowance from all of her rivals.
As a consequence, she has at least 10lb in hand - and that should make her very difficult to beat.
That is particularly so, as trip and ground should be perfect for her.
If you take her on, it will be more in hope, than expectation…
I’m therefore left again, playing the game of ‘name the runner up’ !
On official ratings, Ronald Pump is the second best horse in the race - and whilst it’s only by a pound, there is a temptation to stop there !
He ran a huge race when second to Lisnagar Oscar in the stayers hurdle at the Cheltenham festival - and also ran perfectly respectably until falling at the last, on his reappearance.
Provided he has recovered from that fall, then he is probably the one most likely to follow home Honeysuckle…
That said, there is the chance that Fury Road could improve past him.
He finished a close third in a red hot edition of The Albert Bartlett at the festival - and Thyme Hill, franked that form by winning at Newbury on Friday.
I do wonder how Fury Road will cope with a trip of 2m4f in grade 1 open company - but if he finds the pace, he could even give Honeysuckle something to think about !

3:05

I absolutely promise, that I won’t get involved with this race - officially speaking.
5 JP McManus runners - and a Charles Byrnes ‘dark one’ - in a valuable handicap hurdle, creates a situation which any self respecting form student will just walk away from !
Suffice to say, if you want to back the winner - just follow the money (but make sure it’s the ‘right’ money !!)

For what it’s worth, Cayd Boy looks the most likely of the JP quintet - mainly because Mark Walsh has been booked.
He won well at Down Royal on his handicap debut and may be able to defy a 9lb weight rise.
Drop the Anchor was a much shorter price in the same race - but had just come under pressure when he was brought down.
It’s anyones guess whether he would have been involved at the finish - but it’s fair to assume he was expected to run well - and the 9lb weight turnaround with the winner will certainly help his cause.
Getway Gorgeous was sent off an even short price for the Down Royal race - and ran  a little disappointingly, to only finished fifth.
However, like Drop the Anchor, he gets a 9lb pull with the winner and that should make things closer.
Eclair de Beaufeu is 18lb lower over hurdle than he is over fences - and will be running from the same mark as when he unseated at the last, in the 2019 country hurdle.
He was subject to a rare poor Jack Kennedy ride that day - and the suggestion is that he can win a decent hurdle race off his current mark.
Ciel de Neige ran a massive race to finish runner up in last seasons Betfair hurdle.
It was particularly meritorious effort as he was only a 5 year old.
He can be forgiven a subsequent below par effort at Cheltenham - and off a mark just 3lb higher tomorrow, should be very competitive.
Advanced Virgo is the final one, on another not very short, short-list !
He will be making his handicap debut over hurdles - but has been running with credit on the flat.
A flat rating of 83, suggests he could have a few pounds in hand of his hurdles mark - but as he is trained by Charles Byrnes, we’ll have to wait until some point tomorrow, before we find out whether that is actually the case ! 

I forgot to mention in the introduction, but just a reminder, that any tips tomorrow, will be issued after 10:00 (the markets may still be fragile at that point - but we can’t wait all day !)


Leicester

2:28

Most of the veterans races are run over a trip of 3 miles - so this is a little unusual, as it’s over 2m4f.
As a consequence, it’s not the ‘usual suspects’ that are lining up - but instead, a different set of contenders…

Two Taffs heads the betting on his debut for Nigel Twiston Davies.
He showed some very decent form last season, when trained by Dan Skelton - particularly his second place to Clondaw Castle at Warwick, on his penultimate run of the campaign.
That’s good form - and as he’s likely to be ready to go first time, he’s the one to beat.
Second fav Garde le Victoire, also showed good form last season - and I would expect him to go close tomorrow.
He only ran 3 times last season - but each was a competitive race and he ran with credit.
He will be better for his seasonal debut at Hereford earlier this month - and the drop into veterans company will make things a bit easier for him.
Theinval holds Two Taffs - both on form from Ayr, a few seasons - and also on their runs in last years Grand annual chase.
Theinval will relish tomorrows quick ground - however, he hasn’t got a great record fresh - and 2m4f is likely to stretch his stamina.
I could see him running well to a point - the question is whether he will get home…
Sir Ivan is the final one of interest.
He ran really well last time, on his seasonal debut over hurdles at Aintree.
That was a fair race and he came there looking the winner at the second last, before not getting home.
He should be sharper for that run - and he’s just as able over fences as he is over hurdles.