Todays Suggested bets
Matrix bets
Haydock
12:40
Snow Leopardess 3 units win 7/1
Pop Rockstar 2 units win 8/1 (FP 10/1)
Pookie Pekan 3 units win 12/1 (FP 14/1)
Saint Xavier 2 units win 16/1
1:50
Umbrigado 5 units win 6/1
Shakem Up'Arry 3 units win 11/2
Our Power 2 units win 15/2 (FP 9/1)
Kaiser 2 units win 25/1
3:00
Bristol de Mai 10 units win 10/3
Ascot
12:55
Salty Boy 5 units win 9/1
Minella Bobo 3 units win 9/1
Ivilnobel 2 units win 40/1
2:05
Black Corton 5 units win 5/1
Best Bets
Haydock
1:50
Umbrigado 0.5pt win 6/1 (MP 5/1)
3:00
Bristol de Mai 1pt win 10/3 (MP 2/1)
Ascot
12:55
Salty Boy 0.5pt win 9/1 (MP 7/1)
2:05
Black Corton 0.5pt win 5/1 (MP 4/1)
It was desperately hard to spot any value in the early
markets, this morning…
The handicaps, in particular, had been knocked into shape over night - and there was a 25% over-round on best prices.
There was a temptation to leave them alone completely - and I certainly backed off a fair bit.
I’m sure the markets will be looking much better, later - and hopefully I’ll find a few interesting angles for the Live thread.
For the early bets though, I ended up with just a couple of Best bets in the handicaps - and a couple more in the Conditions races - which despite their small fields, were a little more attractive for betting purposes… (smaller overrounds and more stable)
Haydock
The 12:40 is cracking contest - and I could have been very keen on 3 or 4 of the runners.
However, that’s the issue - as they can’t all win !
I ended up just covering the race with half a matrix - because when you fancy so many, there’s a fair chance you’ve read it wrong !
I think I like Snow Leopardess best - but Saint Xavier and Pookie Pekan both strike me as potential dark ones.
I couldn’t make any of them best bets - but hopefully one of them will come good.
As I said in the preview, the ground will be key for 1:15.
I’m guessing it will be ‘soft’ - which won’t particularly suit Dashel Drasher or Deyrann de Carjac.
With Master Tommytucker too risky at the odds, Commanche Red should probably be the bet - but I’m just not sure.
Maybe I will be later..!
I’ll be pretty surprised if the 1:50 isn’t won by one of the top 5 in the market.
They could all be big improvers, with at least 7lb in hand of their mark.
We kind of know that Umbrigado has 7lb in hand of his mark - as he was running very well off a 3lb higher mark last season - and he has a decent 7lb claimer in the saddle.
2m4f on soft ground strikes me as the perfect test for him - so he sets a high standard.
Shakem Up’Arry could be anything - so it makes sense to save on him (for the Matrix): I also respect the chances of Our Power.
Kaizer is the potential fly in the ointment - so is also worth covering, at a big price.
It’s very tempting to oppose The jam Man in the 2:25 - but I can’t figure out, what with…
Third Wind and Relegate were the 2 I considered - but there is nothing in their prices.
Stable confidence in Imperial Alcazar, also makes me very wary of him.
There are plenty at big prices who I could also give half chances to - so on balance, it is a race best watched.
I reckon Bristol de Mai should be favourite for the Betfair chase - particularly if the rain arrives.
There’s a lot being made of him now being 9 - but that’s only a year older than his 2 main rivals.
He looked as good as ever last season - when he probably would have won this race, on softer ground.
He also conceded a fitness advantage to Lostintranslation that day - and was harried on the lead.
In short, he has less than 2 lengths to find with the fav - and a number of things in his favour (compared to last year).
Paul Nichols is talking up the chances of Clan des Obeaux - but if he was really fancied, I’m sure Harry Cobden would be in the saddle.
If he’s at his peak today, then they are effectively sacrificing his hatrick bid for the King George…
I just can’t get my head round the 3:35 - so I eventually gave up trying !
Don Poli is the obvious one - but not at 4/1 (though I wouldn’t be surprised to see him go even shorter !).
It’s impossible to accurately compare the merits of the runners, because there are all so different.
It’s the kind of race where it will be obvious after the event - but that’s really not much use !
Ascot
The 12:55 is a very hot race - and I greatly respect the chances of Demachine - but I’m prepared to oppose him with the 3 outsiders in the race…
Minella Bobbo caught my eye in the Uttoxeter race, when behind Demachine - and he gets a big weight pull; whilst I just have a sneaky feeling that Ivilnobel could run much better than the market expects.
However, the main bet is Salty Boy.
He was given a sighter on his UK debut at Sandown last time - and finished like a train.
Stepped up in trip - and with 2lb off his mark, I would expect him to run a serious race this afternoon.
Whether that will be good enough to beat Demachine, only time will tell - but at the odds, he’s worth a risk to find out.
It’s fair to say that I’ve not got much of an opinion on the 1:30.
If the ground is good, then Hotter than Hell is probably the most likely winner - but she’s made her way to the head of the market, and I can resist her at 4/1.
As I said in the preview, Black Corton sets the standard in the 2:05 - and with him also likely to get an uncontested lead, he’s worth a small bet.
There’s definite chance that one of the other 3 will improve past him - but it’s not guaranteed.
It’s a question of siding with ‘proven’ over ‘potential’ - and at the prices on offer, it seems the sensible option.
There’s too much guesswork required to consider a play in the 2:40 - coupled with just 3 runners !
An easy race to pass on…
I couldn’t see an angle into the 3:17.
I doubt the ground will be soft enough for First Flow (in fact, he may be withdrawn).
Capeland is possibly the one - but he has nothing in hand of his mark and 9/2 is plenty short enough.
Marracudja could be maybe spring a surprise - but on balance, it looks an unsolvable puzzle.
TVB.
The handicaps, in particular, had been knocked into shape over night - and there was a 25% over-round on best prices.
There was a temptation to leave them alone completely - and I certainly backed off a fair bit.
I’m sure the markets will be looking much better, later - and hopefully I’ll find a few interesting angles for the Live thread.
For the early bets though, I ended up with just a couple of Best bets in the handicaps - and a couple more in the Conditions races - which despite their small fields, were a little more attractive for betting purposes… (smaller overrounds and more stable)
Haydock
The 12:40 is cracking contest - and I could have been very keen on 3 or 4 of the runners.
However, that’s the issue - as they can’t all win !
I ended up just covering the race with half a matrix - because when you fancy so many, there’s a fair chance you’ve read it wrong !
I think I like Snow Leopardess best - but Saint Xavier and Pookie Pekan both strike me as potential dark ones.
I couldn’t make any of them best bets - but hopefully one of them will come good.
As I said in the preview, the ground will be key for 1:15.
I’m guessing it will be ‘soft’ - which won’t particularly suit Dashel Drasher or Deyrann de Carjac.
With Master Tommytucker too risky at the odds, Commanche Red should probably be the bet - but I’m just not sure.
Maybe I will be later..!
I’ll be pretty surprised if the 1:50 isn’t won by one of the top 5 in the market.
They could all be big improvers, with at least 7lb in hand of their mark.
We kind of know that Umbrigado has 7lb in hand of his mark - as he was running very well off a 3lb higher mark last season - and he has a decent 7lb claimer in the saddle.
2m4f on soft ground strikes me as the perfect test for him - so he sets a high standard.
Shakem Up’Arry could be anything - so it makes sense to save on him (for the Matrix): I also respect the chances of Our Power.
Kaizer is the potential fly in the ointment - so is also worth covering, at a big price.
It’s very tempting to oppose The jam Man in the 2:25 - but I can’t figure out, what with…
Third Wind and Relegate were the 2 I considered - but there is nothing in their prices.
Stable confidence in Imperial Alcazar, also makes me very wary of him.
There are plenty at big prices who I could also give half chances to - so on balance, it is a race best watched.
I reckon Bristol de Mai should be favourite for the Betfair chase - particularly if the rain arrives.
There’s a lot being made of him now being 9 - but that’s only a year older than his 2 main rivals.
He looked as good as ever last season - when he probably would have won this race, on softer ground.
He also conceded a fitness advantage to Lostintranslation that day - and was harried on the lead.
In short, he has less than 2 lengths to find with the fav - and a number of things in his favour (compared to last year).
Paul Nichols is talking up the chances of Clan des Obeaux - but if he was really fancied, I’m sure Harry Cobden would be in the saddle.
If he’s at his peak today, then they are effectively sacrificing his hatrick bid for the King George…
I just can’t get my head round the 3:35 - so I eventually gave up trying !
Don Poli is the obvious one - but not at 4/1 (though I wouldn’t be surprised to see him go even shorter !).
It’s impossible to accurately compare the merits of the runners, because there are all so different.
It’s the kind of race where it will be obvious after the event - but that’s really not much use !
Ascot
The 12:55 is a very hot race - and I greatly respect the chances of Demachine - but I’m prepared to oppose him with the 3 outsiders in the race…
Minella Bobbo caught my eye in the Uttoxeter race, when behind Demachine - and he gets a big weight pull; whilst I just have a sneaky feeling that Ivilnobel could run much better than the market expects.
However, the main bet is Salty Boy.
He was given a sighter on his UK debut at Sandown last time - and finished like a train.
Stepped up in trip - and with 2lb off his mark, I would expect him to run a serious race this afternoon.
Whether that will be good enough to beat Demachine, only time will tell - but at the odds, he’s worth a risk to find out.
It’s fair to say that I’ve not got much of an opinion on the 1:30.
If the ground is good, then Hotter than Hell is probably the most likely winner - but she’s made her way to the head of the market, and I can resist her at 4/1.
As I said in the preview, Black Corton sets the standard in the 2:05 - and with him also likely to get an uncontested lead, he’s worth a small bet.
There’s definite chance that one of the other 3 will improve past him - but it’s not guaranteed.
It’s a question of siding with ‘proven’ over ‘potential’ - and at the prices on offer, it seems the sensible option.
There’s too much guesswork required to consider a play in the 2:40 - coupled with just 3 runners !
An easy race to pass on…
I couldn’t see an angle into the 3:17.
I doubt the ground will be soft enough for First Flow (in fact, he may be withdrawn).
Capeland is possibly the one - but he has nothing in hand of his mark and 9/2 is plenty short enough.
Marracudja could be maybe spring a surprise - but on balance, it looks an unsolvable puzzle.
TVB.
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