There’s a different feel to this weekend, compared to the 3 that have preceded it…
Whilst the Conditions races at Haydock and Ascot have all drawn small fields, the handicaps are fiercely competitive (and I mean fiercely !).None of them can easily be narrowed down to less than half a dozen - and for some, there are twice that many who could win !
Clearly that’s not ideal for ‘Best bets’ - so this is likely to be the time when the Matrix starts to come into it’s own…
What I suspect I’ll end up doing, is deploying half Matrixes on races where I think there are a few value bets - and the full matrix if I feel I can really get hold of a race.
The other thing I’m very mindful of, is the state of the ground.
It’s a particular issue at Haydock, where it is described as ‘Soft - good to soft in places’ - but there are showers forecast ! (either heavy - or light - depending on where you look !).
I suspect that even tomorrow morning, I’ll be guessing on the state of the going - which should add significantly to the appeal of tomorrow afternoons ‘Live thread’ !
Haydock
12:40
The first challenging handicap of the day !
Pop Rockstar finished a very good second on his seasonal debut at Carlisle, last month.
He travelled strongly through the race that day, and just failed to get up, close home.
He’s been raised 2lb for his efforts - but is only 8 so should still be improving.
Certainly a mark of 135 doesn’t look beyond him…
Pookie Pekan finished 2 lengths behind Pop Rockstar in that race - and will be 2lb better off tomorrow.
It was also his seasonal debut - and he too, can be expected to improve for the run.
The 3 mile 1 furlong trip is an unknown - and could be a slight issue, as he seemed to get tired in the closing stages at Carlisle.
However, he may just have needed the run that day - and it’s interesting that his trainer had him entered up for the 3m4f race on this card, suggesting he has no doubts about the horse’s stamina !
Snow Leopardess is a very interesting runner, on only her third chase start.
I would have expected to see her in a novice event of some kind - either competing against other mares, or taking advantage of the mares allowance.
In fairness, she jumped like an old hand at Wetherby last time - and there is little doubt that she could be very well handicapped off a mark of 126.
Claud and Goldie ran a fair race on his seasonal debut at Kelso last month, when finishing second to Some Chaos.
It’s therefore a little surprising that the assessor saw fit to drop him 2lb.
He also ran well over course and distance in January, when fourth in the grade 2 Peter Marsh chase.
On that form, he sets the race standard - though he’s not open to a great deal of improvement (he’s already 11)…
The final one on the short list, is Saint Xavier.
He will be having his second race for Richard Hobson, having made his debut for the stable behind Cyrname in the Charlie Hall chase.
Clearly he stood little chance in that race - but he ran quite respectably and if he can build on that, then he should go well.
The re-application of cheek prices, which he wore a few times in his native France, is an interesting move…
1:15
This is a particularly strong graduation chase - and the state of the ground is likely to have a big impact on the outcome.
Master Tommytucker is the right favourite - because he’s the most talented horse in the field !
However, his jumping is his Achilles heal.
Generally, he is brilliant - but if he gets one wrong, he’s liable to fall.
My worry is that he’ll be put under pressure at some point - and Haydocks fences usually take a bit of jumping (they did last season, though that has changed over the years !).
I’m also not convinced that Sam Twiston Davies is the best jockey for the horse, as Master Tommytucker is probably better suited to the the more subtle style of Harry Cobden (who is riding at Ascot).
Dashel Drasher wants good ground to be seen at his best - and if he gets it, then he should run his race.
If that is the case, then he’s likely to go close - though he may be vulnerable from a win perspective.
Deyrann de Carjac also wants good ground - and the form of his debut win at Huntingdon last season, really couldn’t be stronger (he beat Pym, Whatmore and El Presente)
He followed that up by almost beating Champ at Newbury - before running on unsuitably soft ground on his final 2 outings.
If the ground is soft (or worse) tomorrow, then it will suit Good boy Bobby and Commanche Red, best.
They both have form good enough to win a race of this nature - and whilst I would have a slight preference for the last named, the application of first time cheek pieces, after a disappointing debut run at Ascot, does seem a bit of a negative…
1:50
This could well be a particularly hot handicap…
There are 4 or 5 unexposed horses in the race, who may be significantly ahead of their marks.
I doubt they all will be - but I’ll be surprised if one or two aren’t…
Shakem Up’Arry is the obvious start point, on his handicap debut.
He finished runner up to Master Coffey and Shishkin, last season - before running behind Envoi Allen in the Ballymore at the Cheltenham festival.
He hacked up in a novice hurdle at Ffos Las a fortnight ago - and a mark of 130 could seriously under-estimate him…
Kid Commando has already shown his hand to an extent, when winning a decent handicap at Ascot on his seasonal debut.
However, he was only raised 7lb for that win - which strikes me as pretty lenient.
Tomorrows race is a lower grade - and he won very easily at Ascot.
It certainly wouldn’t be a great surprise to see him defy his new mark…
It’s a similar story with Arrivederci.
He won a fair handicap at Wetherby on his seasonal debut - and has been given an 8lb rise for that.
He moves up in grade tomorrow - but it’s quite possible that he still has scope off his new mark of 135.
Umbrigado has a slightly different profile.
He’s a second season novice - so has a bit more experience.
He was well fancied for a number of high class handicaps last season - but didn’t deliver.
That said, he didn’t run badly either - and starts this campaign off a mark 3lb lower than 12 months ago.
Tomorrows test looks to be ideal for him - and he’s run well fresh in the past.
The booking of 7lb claimer Fergus Gillard is also an interesting move…
Our Power was an eye catcher last time, on his seasonal debut at Cheltenham.
He travelled powerfully into the race that day - and whilst he was no match for the winner, Captain Tom Cat, that is strong form.
Our Power won a decent handicap at Kempton last season, so is proven in the kind of race he’ll be tackling tomorrow.
Kaizer is the final one worthy of a mention.
He runs in tomorrows race with a weight of just 10st 4lb on his back - minus his riders 3lb claim.
He showed good form when winning at Carlisle last time - and although this is a step up in grade, he is clearly progressive.
2:25
Sometimes you just have to accept that you’ve met a match with a race - and I suspect I’ve met mine here !
There are 18 runners - and I would struggle to eliminate more than half a dozen.
It is likely to end up a watching race…
The Jam Man really shouldn’t be up to winning this, based on his last run in the UK.
That was on New Years day, when he finished a well beaten fourth in a weaker contest at Cheltenham.
He was running off a mark 4lb lower that day - so on that form, he should be quickly dismissed.
However, on his most recent outing, he bolted up in the Troytown chase at Navan - and whilst he runs off a mark 19lb higher tomorrow - I’m not sure that would have stopped him him that day !
He’s one of those: you couldn’t possibly side with him at 4/1 - but he’s also hard to side against…
Even if I take him out of the race, it’s still fiercely competitive.
Imperial Alkazar is clearly well fancied by Fegal O’Brien on his handicap debut.
He’s hard to get a handle on - but his narrow defeat by Protektorat at Cheltenham on New Years day, looks good in light of that ones exploits over fences this season.
Relegate is arguably the form choice, based on her fifth place in last seasons Pertemps final.
She was sent off favourite that day - and would probably have finished a fair bit closer, if her jumping had been better.
I’m sure that’s been worked on - and if it’s improved, she will be hard to beat.
That said, it should be very close between her and Third Wind.
He finished a head in front of her at Cheltenham, and they meet on the same terms tomorrow.
Which one comes out on top, is likely to come down to hurdling, ground conditions, etc.
Dolphin Square looks a little over-priced, as he finished a head of Third Wind last time at Newbury and is only 2 lb worse off tomorrow.
However, we can only guess on which one of them derived most benefit from their seasonal debut…
Flashjack is the one that interests me most of the outsiders.
He caught my eye last time, when making a move round the turn at Aintree.
Ultimately his effort flattened out - but he may have needed the run that day.
He’s been dropped a couple of pounds, which will help - and whilst he is now 10, if the ground happens to come up really heavy, I could see him seriously outrunning his odds.
3:00
There may only be 5 runners, but this is still a decent running of the Betfair chase.
The market is headed by last years winner, Lostintranslation.
He was impressive 12 months ago, when getting the better of Bristol De Mai - and on that form, is the one to beat.
However, he’d had a prep run that day - whereas he will be making his seasonal debut tomorrow. Also, he was better suited to the relatively quick ground, than his main rival (and that may be the case again tomorrow - or it may not !).
Bristol de Mai has obviously got his work on to reclaim the prize he won for the 2 years prior to last year.
That said, Nigel Twiston Davies will know that this is his best chance of grade 1 glory this season, so I’ve no doubt he will be tuned to the minute.
He’s now pushing 10 - so there’s unlikely to be any improvement left in him.
However, if the ground is on the soft side, he is likely to be hard to beat.
There’s no reason why Clan des Obeaux won’t run a big race - though he’s less likely to be at his peak.
The big day for him, is Boxing/St Stephens day, so I’ll be a little surprised if he is 100% tomorrow.
Neither of the 2 outsiders can be completely dismissed.
Bellshill has his first run for Sandy Thompson having left Willie Mullins - but he won a grade 1 less than 2 years ago (admittedly, a weak one), and is unlikely to have significantly declined since then.
Keeper Hill has never had aspirations to being a grade 1 horse.
However, he will have perfect conditions tomorrow (3 miles and a small field) - and will also hold a fitness advantage over all of this rivals.
He may be an unlikely winner - but he’s certainly not an impossible one…
3:35
There has to be a possibility that Don Poli will blow this race apart…
Rated 167 in his prime - and the winner of 3 grade 1 chases, when at his peak - he runs off a mark of 130 tomorrow.
Clearly all the old ability doesn’t remain - but a chunk does, as he showed last time on his debut for Dan Skelton.
He finished 4th in a veterans chase at Aintree - and was arguably the second best horse in the race.
If he has come on for that run, then he is very much the one to beat tomorrow…
Ballydine also ran in the Aintree race - and he finished well beaten.
However that was only his second run in the last 18 months so he was entitled to need it.
He’s a year younger than Don Poli - and whilst he never scaled the same heights, he was very decent a couple of seasons ago.
He was running off a mark of 140, when he finished third in the 2019 Peter Marsh chase at tomorrows course.
The question with him, is how much of that old ability remains..?
Alminar is a very different beast, as he’s only 7 - and therefore should still be improving.
He ran a nice race on his seasonal debut at Cheltenham a month ago - and races off the same mark tomorrow.
It’s interesting that he’s had a wind op in the interim (presumably not a major one) - and it that brings about some improvement, he should run well.
Kings Monarch finished third in the corresponding race 12 months ago - as a 6 year old.
He’s only run twice since then: when pulled up at Doncaster the following month - and then when winning on his seasonal debut at Ffos Las, last month.
As a result of that win, he races off a 4lb higher mark tomorrow, than 12 months ago - however, it did prove his well being and there is a strong chance that he has made more than that amount of improvement, in the past year.
Ascot
Compared to Haydock, the Ascot card is a little disappointing - though it’s interesting to see Harry Cobden has chosen to ride there, rather than at Haydock, where he could have partnered Clan des Obeaux and Master Tommytucker.
You have to think that one of his Ascot mounts is well fancied (or the ones at Haydock, aren’t !).
I always like to see them racing at the same course on the Friday - and I thought the ground at Ascot today, looked just on the soft side of good.
That said, I also noticed it was raining, so it might not the same tomorrow !
12:55
There may only be 7 runners in this, but I wouldn't be surprised if any of the 7 won.
Demachine has been installed favourite on the back of his win in a particularly strong novice handicap chase at Uttoxeter.
He beat Morning Vicar by 4 lengths that day - and that one subsequently hacked up at Newbury.
It was only the fifth race of Demachine life - and whilst he was raised 10lb for his troubles, there is every chance he’s capable of defying his new mark.
The problem for him, is that it’s a particularly strong race…
Young Bull and Minella Bobbo both finished behind Demachine at Uttoxeter - and at the revised weights, each has a chance of reversing the form.
Like Demachine, both are young unexposed horses - and Minella Bobo in particular, travelled into the race very strongly.
As it was his first outing for 18 months, he could well make significant improvement - and the 13lb weight turn around, gives him a real chance of reversing the form.
Salty Boy caught my eye last time on his UK debut at Sandown.
That was also in a novice handicap chase - and whilst he never looked like winning, he was running on strongly at the end of the race and should appreciate the step up in trip tomorrow.
Ivilnobel was pulled up last time at Market Rasen - but had looked good on his final run of last season, when winning at Hereford.
He’s back down to his winning mark tomorrow - and with cheek pieces applied for the first time, I could see him running better than his big price suggests.
I couldn’t easily dismiss either of the other 2 (Hold that Taught and Go Whatever), making this a tough race to take a strong stand in…
1:30
Relative to the other races taking place tomorrow, this is a poor contest.
That said, something has to win it !
Coilite Eile won it 12 months ago - when trained by Dr Newland.
She was expected to go on from that - but has literally achieved nothing since.
Her 6 subsequent runs have seen a series of poor performances - and she will run tomorrow off a mark 5lb lower than she won from, 12 months ago.
That still probably wouldn’t be sufficient to tempt me in - but a switch to the all conquering yard of Fergal O’Brien, might !
Clearly there is a lot of guesswork required - but if Fergal has managed to work his magic, then you probably need look no further for the winner.
If he hasn’t, then it gets a bit trickier…
Same Circus is probably is quite interesting on the back of a good run behind the revitalised Dell ‘Arca, at Aintree.
She’s 9 years old now, so won’t be improving - but is competitively handicapped off a mark of 120.
You would hope there would be something better handicapped in the race - but there might not be..!
One possibility is Hotter than Hell.
She ran a nice race last time out, when third at Wincanton in a better race than
tomorrows.
Her mark has remained unchanged - and she is young enough to still be progressing.
The only issue is that she needs decent ground - so overnight rain would be a negative.
2:05
I’m guessing that Real Steal is the main reason that Harry Cobden is riding at Ascot tomorrow - and not Haydock…
He has his first run for Paul Nichols, having transferred over from Willie Mullins, along with a fair few other horses owned by Jarad Sullivan.
Ordinarily, when Nichols gets horses from other trainers, he likes to make the point that they weren’t fit, by running them a few times before they win ! (I think it’s an ego thing).
For whatever reason, that’s not been the case with the Sullivan horses - so I wouldn’t be surprised if Real Steal was close to his peak tomorrow.
In fairness, if he’s going to win, then he will need to be - as it’s a tough race.
Bizarrely, the outsider, Black Corton probably sets the race standard.
On official ratings, he’s best in at the weights - and with his fitness assured, he won’t be easy to pass.
The negatives are that tomorrows trip will be on the short side for him; whilst he is best on quick ground (which he may not get).
He also has less scope for improvement than all of his rivals…
Itchy Feet and Imperial Aura are the 2 with the greatest scope for improvement - and I thought the latter did particularly well to win on his seasonal debut at Carlisle, earlier this month.
Whether that warrants him being 7/4 fav for tomorrows race however, is a different matter…
In fact, I probably slightly prefer the chances of Itchy Feet - particularly as I think he will be well suited by the tomorrows small field and likely strong pace.
2:40
Laurina is the second big runner of the afternoon for the Sullivan/Nichols/Cobden combination.
Again she is making her debut for Nichols - and on ratings, she should win.
However, she was totally out of form for Willie Mullins all of last season - and good trainer that he is, if she’s gone at the game, then Nichols won’t be relighting the fire !
And that makes this an impossible race to play in - because it’s not about form etc. - it’s about health…
In receipt of almost a stone from her 2 rivals, the Laurina of 2 years ago would hack up in this race; however, even in receipt of double that amount, the Laurina of last season would probably finish last.
The betting says it’s 6/4 that Nichols has turned her round - but I can pass at those kind of odds…
The match up between the other pair should be interesting…
Song for Someone was a big improver last season - whereas Call me Lord was relatively disappointing (despite winning a grade 2 !)
Call me Lord has the advantage of a run this season: but Tom Symonds (the trainer of Song for Someone) could hardly have his horses in better condition.
You pay your money and make your choice.
I think Call me Lord should edge it - but I won’t be betting on it…
3:17
This looks a tricky race to call - particularly without knowing the state of the ground…
Magic Saint was an impressive winner of a good race at Cheltenham last week - but he effectively runs from a mark 9lb higher tomorrow - and it was only a week ago.
That said, Paul Nichols isn’t in the habit of running horses again, quickly - so maybe we should take the hint…
Nichols also saddles Capeland - and he won the corresponding race 12 months ago.
However, that was off a mark 7lb lower and he now looks a touch high in the handicap - unless first time cheek pieces result in some improvement.
First flow would be very interesting - if the ground is riding soft.
He got his conditions a few times last season - and managed to rack up a hatrick of wins.
He also finished a credible third to Espoir de Guye, over todays course (and that one franked the form today).
Abbey Magic is of interest, mainly because Henry de Bromhead has sent him over from Ireland.
It’s an unusual thing to do, for a race which, this season, isn’t worth a huge amount.
Maybe there are no suitable races being run in Ireland prior to Christmas - though I would have thought he could have found something…
Compared to Haydock, the Ascot card is a little disappointing - though it’s interesting to see Harry Cobden has chosen to ride there, rather than at Haydock, where he could have partnered Clan des Obeaux and Master Tommytucker.
You have to think that one of his Ascot mounts is well fancied (or the ones at Haydock, aren’t !).
I always like to see them racing at the same course on the Friday - and I thought the ground at Ascot today, looked just on the soft side of good.
That said, I also noticed it was raining, so it might not the same tomorrow !
12:55
There may only be 7 runners in this, but I wouldn't be surprised if any of the 7 won.
Demachine has been installed favourite on the back of his win in a particularly strong novice handicap chase at Uttoxeter.
He beat Morning Vicar by 4 lengths that day - and that one subsequently hacked up at Newbury.
It was only the fifth race of Demachine life - and whilst he was raised 10lb for his troubles, there is every chance he’s capable of defying his new mark.
The problem for him, is that it’s a particularly strong race…
Young Bull and Minella Bobbo both finished behind Demachine at Uttoxeter - and at the revised weights, each has a chance of reversing the form.
Like Demachine, both are young unexposed horses - and Minella Bobo in particular, travelled into the race very strongly.
As it was his first outing for 18 months, he could well make significant improvement - and the 13lb weight turn around, gives him a real chance of reversing the form.
Salty Boy caught my eye last time on his UK debut at Sandown.
That was also in a novice handicap chase - and whilst he never looked like winning, he was running on strongly at the end of the race and should appreciate the step up in trip tomorrow.
Ivilnobel was pulled up last time at Market Rasen - but had looked good on his final run of last season, when winning at Hereford.
He’s back down to his winning mark tomorrow - and with cheek pieces applied for the first time, I could see him running better than his big price suggests.
I couldn’t easily dismiss either of the other 2 (Hold that Taught and Go Whatever), making this a tough race to take a strong stand in…
1:30
Relative to the other races taking place tomorrow, this is a poor contest.
That said, something has to win it !
Coilite Eile won it 12 months ago - when trained by Dr Newland.
She was expected to go on from that - but has literally achieved nothing since.
Her 6 subsequent runs have seen a series of poor performances - and she will run tomorrow off a mark 5lb lower than she won from, 12 months ago.
That still probably wouldn’t be sufficient to tempt me in - but a switch to the all conquering yard of Fergal O’Brien, might !
Clearly there is a lot of guesswork required - but if Fergal has managed to work his magic, then you probably need look no further for the winner.
If he hasn’t, then it gets a bit trickier…
Same Circus is probably is quite interesting on the back of a good run behind the revitalised Dell ‘Arca, at Aintree.
She’s 9 years old now, so won’t be improving - but is competitively handicapped off a mark of 120.
You would hope there would be something better handicapped in the race - but there might not be..!
One possibility is Hotter than Hell.
She ran a nice race last time out, when third at Wincanton in a better race than
tomorrows.
Her mark has remained unchanged - and she is young enough to still be progressing.
The only issue is that she needs decent ground - so overnight rain would be a negative.
2:05
I’m guessing that Real Steal is the main reason that Harry Cobden is riding at Ascot tomorrow - and not Haydock…
He has his first run for Paul Nichols, having transferred over from Willie Mullins, along with a fair few other horses owned by Jarad Sullivan.
Ordinarily, when Nichols gets horses from other trainers, he likes to make the point that they weren’t fit, by running them a few times before they win ! (I think it’s an ego thing).
For whatever reason, that’s not been the case with the Sullivan horses - so I wouldn’t be surprised if Real Steal was close to his peak tomorrow.
In fairness, if he’s going to win, then he will need to be - as it’s a tough race.
Bizarrely, the outsider, Black Corton probably sets the race standard.
On official ratings, he’s best in at the weights - and with his fitness assured, he won’t be easy to pass.
The negatives are that tomorrows trip will be on the short side for him; whilst he is best on quick ground (which he may not get).
He also has less scope for improvement than all of his rivals…
Itchy Feet and Imperial Aura are the 2 with the greatest scope for improvement - and I thought the latter did particularly well to win on his seasonal debut at Carlisle, earlier this month.
Whether that warrants him being 7/4 fav for tomorrows race however, is a different matter…
In fact, I probably slightly prefer the chances of Itchy Feet - particularly as I think he will be well suited by the tomorrows small field and likely strong pace.
2:40
Laurina is the second big runner of the afternoon for the Sullivan/Nichols/Cobden combination.
Again she is making her debut for Nichols - and on ratings, she should win.
However, she was totally out of form for Willie Mullins all of last season - and good trainer that he is, if she’s gone at the game, then Nichols won’t be relighting the fire !
And that makes this an impossible race to play in - because it’s not about form etc. - it’s about health…
In receipt of almost a stone from her 2 rivals, the Laurina of 2 years ago would hack up in this race; however, even in receipt of double that amount, the Laurina of last season would probably finish last.
The betting says it’s 6/4 that Nichols has turned her round - but I can pass at those kind of odds…
The match up between the other pair should be interesting…
Song for Someone was a big improver last season - whereas Call me Lord was relatively disappointing (despite winning a grade 2 !)
Call me Lord has the advantage of a run this season: but Tom Symonds (the trainer of Song for Someone) could hardly have his horses in better condition.
You pay your money and make your choice.
I think Call me Lord should edge it - but I won’t be betting on it…
3:17
This looks a tricky race to call - particularly without knowing the state of the ground…
Magic Saint was an impressive winner of a good race at Cheltenham last week - but he effectively runs from a mark 9lb higher tomorrow - and it was only a week ago.
That said, Paul Nichols isn’t in the habit of running horses again, quickly - so maybe we should take the hint…
Nichols also saddles Capeland - and he won the corresponding race 12 months ago.
However, that was off a mark 7lb lower and he now looks a touch high in the handicap - unless first time cheek pieces result in some improvement.
First flow would be very interesting - if the ground is riding soft.
He got his conditions a few times last season - and managed to rack up a hatrick of wins.
He also finished a credible third to Espoir de Guye, over todays course (and that one franked the form today).
Abbey Magic is of interest, mainly because Henry de Bromhead has sent him over from Ireland.
It’s an unusual thing to do, for a race which, this season, isn’t worth a huge amount.
Maybe there are no suitable races being run in Ireland prior to Christmas - though I would have thought he could have found something…
No comments:
Post a Comment