Todays Suggested bets
There hasn’t been as much rain overnight, as some people were expecting.
I guess it could still come - but I’ve got to draw the line somewhere !
Nothing massively grabs me at Wetherby - where the issue is fitness, as opposed to conditions.
By contrast I’ve got a few fancies at Ascot - and one each at Down Royal and Ayr.
The recommendation remains, to take the best price in the live market, 5 mins before the off, as I would expect that to be better than most of the advised prices, below…
Matrix bets
Ascot
1:20
Dorking Boy 10 units win 11/2 (MP 7/2)
Smarty Wild 2 units win 7/1
1:55
Ibleo 10 units win 9/4 (FP 5/2, MP 2/1)
3:40
Commanche Red 4 units win 6/1
Townshend 3 units win 25/1
Militarian 2 units win 14/1
Down Royal
2:25
Chris’s Dream 10 units win 3/1 (MP 2/1)
Ayr
2:52
Saint Leo 5 units win 6/1 (MP 4/1)
Best Bets
Ascot
1:20
Dorking Boy 1pt 11/2 (MP 7/2)
1:55
Ibleo 1pt win 9/4 (FP 5/2, MP 2/1)
Down Royal
2:25
Chris’s Dream 1pt win 3/1 (MP 2/1)
Ayr
2:52
Saint Leo 0.5pt win 6/1 (MP 4/1)
It’s very much a case of easing in gently, today…
As I said in the preview, both ground conditions and fitness, remain concerns, so it makes sense to keep things tight.
Ascot
Dorking Boy is arguably the best bet of the day, in the 1:20.
I definitely prefer him most of the market leaders (Dr Sanderson, Falco Blitz and Sully Doc AA) - though I’m a little fearful of Smarty Wild (so am saving on him, in the Matrix).
Ibleo was a borderline call in the 1:55 - but only because of the price…
However, this strikes me as a relatively weak race - and he looks the most likely winner.
I think 2/1 is about right - but I’m hopeful he’ll drift (on account of it being his seasonal debut - and also, if there’s not a lot of rain).
The 3:05 race looks just too trappy to get involved with.
I was most tempted by Hang in There - but I couldn’t dismiss any of the runners, so it has to be a watching race…
I do think that Townshend and Militarian are worth small plays (Matrix) in the 3:40 - although Commanche Red and Whatmore strike me as the most likely race winners.
I could have sided with either one of the last 2 named - but at the prices, Commanche Red is the better value.
Wetherby
I decided relatively early, that I was unlikely to get involved with any of the Wetherby races….
I don’t plan to issue bets in any class 4 races - so the 12:25 was out.
I like Guy in the 1:35 - but he’s not going to go under any radars - and whilst he was really impressive at Huntingdon, it was just one run…
Verdana Blue should win the 2:10 (assuming there’s not too much rain).
Roksana will almost certainly run well in the 2:45 - but she’s been backed into favouritism - and is beatable, if one of the others is on their ‘A’ game.
I’ve no idea what will win the Charlie Hall (3:20).
It should be Cyrname - but it is most likely to be Vindication (because of relative fitness).
Definitly Red and Le Bague au Roi should both run well - but neither should be quite good enough to win.
Down Royal
I think Chris’s Dream is the most likely winner of the Champion chase (2:25) - and whilst his price has contracted, there is still a bit of margin at 3/1.
Fitness will be key to this race - and I wouldn't be surprised if The Storyteller and Tout est Permis, proved bigger threats than Delta Work and Presenting Percy.
I considered saving on the last 2 named - but the odds aren’t really there to justify it.
Samcro at 6/4 to beat Easy Game, seems a fair bet - but not one I’m inclined to take up.
Whilst Paranoid at 11/10 is understandable - but again, too short for me to consider getting involved with.
Ayr
Caltex is another who is now too short to consider backing at 7/4 (and I doubt he’ll drift).
Possibly the biggest disappointment of the day, is the huge support for Saint Leo !
He opened up at 16/1 last night - and I would have been more than happy to take a risk at that price.
However, he’s been backed into 5/1 fav (as I type).
Arguably I should have let him go - however, I know that he could be absolutely thrown in.
If the money is from the ‘right’ source, he really should win - if it’s not, he’ll probably be out to 16/1 again at the off !
As I said in the preview, both ground conditions and fitness, remain concerns, so it makes sense to keep things tight.
Ascot
Dorking Boy is arguably the best bet of the day, in the 1:20.
I definitely prefer him most of the market leaders (Dr Sanderson, Falco Blitz and Sully Doc AA) - though I’m a little fearful of Smarty Wild (so am saving on him, in the Matrix).
Ibleo was a borderline call in the 1:55 - but only because of the price…
However, this strikes me as a relatively weak race - and he looks the most likely winner.
I think 2/1 is about right - but I’m hopeful he’ll drift (on account of it being his seasonal debut - and also, if there’s not a lot of rain).
The 3:05 race looks just too trappy to get involved with.
I was most tempted by Hang in There - but I couldn’t dismiss any of the runners, so it has to be a watching race…
I do think that Townshend and Militarian are worth small plays (Matrix) in the 3:40 - although Commanche Red and Whatmore strike me as the most likely race winners.
I could have sided with either one of the last 2 named - but at the prices, Commanche Red is the better value.
Wetherby
I decided relatively early, that I was unlikely to get involved with any of the Wetherby races….
I don’t plan to issue bets in any class 4 races - so the 12:25 was out.
I like Guy in the 1:35 - but he’s not going to go under any radars - and whilst he was really impressive at Huntingdon, it was just one run…
Verdana Blue should win the 2:10 (assuming there’s not too much rain).
Roksana will almost certainly run well in the 2:45 - but she’s been backed into favouritism - and is beatable, if one of the others is on their ‘A’ game.
I’ve no idea what will win the Charlie Hall (3:20).
It should be Cyrname - but it is most likely to be Vindication (because of relative fitness).
Definitly Red and Le Bague au Roi should both run well - but neither should be quite good enough to win.
Down Royal
I think Chris’s Dream is the most likely winner of the Champion chase (2:25) - and whilst his price has contracted, there is still a bit of margin at 3/1.
Fitness will be key to this race - and I wouldn't be surprised if The Storyteller and Tout est Permis, proved bigger threats than Delta Work and Presenting Percy.
I considered saving on the last 2 named - but the odds aren’t really there to justify it.
Samcro at 6/4 to beat Easy Game, seems a fair bet - but not one I’m inclined to take up.
Whilst Paranoid at 11/10 is understandable - but again, too short for me to consider getting involved with.
Ayr
Caltex is another who is now too short to consider backing at 7/4 (and I doubt he’ll drift).
Possibly the biggest disappointment of the day, is the huge support for Saint Leo !
He opened up at 16/1 last night - and I would have been more than happy to take a risk at that price.
However, he’s been backed into 5/1 fav (as I type).
Arguably I should have let him go - however, I know that he could be absolutely thrown in.
If the money is from the ‘right’ source, he really should win - if it’s not, he’ll probably be out to 16/1 again at the off !
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