It’s good to back for a new TVB season :) - March seems an eternity ago…
As I’m sure you are all aware, this is my ninth season running the service - and the changes I’ve introduced for this season (primarily the later tipping window), mean that the ‘Daily write-up’ has been replaced by the ‘Big race preview’.I’ll generally be creating the previews the day before racing - so they won’t be quite as accurate as I might like (in terms of going, weather, non runners etc.).
However, they will reflect my thoughts the evening before - and will be what I’ll use when deciding on the bets, the following day (in conjunction with any additional info that I’ve managed to pick up, since their issue)…
Obviously I tried out the previews during the pre-season - but if I’m honest they weren’t quite the success I was hoping.
I struggled to find the time to write the volume of detail, whilst also studying for the next day.
Clearly I don’t want to be compromising the study - so the previews will have to give a bit…
Often, I’ll be looking to cover a lot of races - and it just won’t be possible to go into great detail for all of the horses I’m interested in.
In truth, I suspect that most of you will be relieved by that (!) - as I suspect a summary of my main fancies in a race will generally suffice…
So that’s what I plan to do.
If time is tight, then I may also ‘chunk up’ the preview - posting on a meeting by meeting basis, as I finish looking at them (which is what I’m doing today !).
That process may well stretch into the race day - depending on how much time I have available…
Anyway, for for tomorrow:
There are 4 NH meetings - and all 4 have their merit.
Certainly the meetings at Ascot, Wetherby and Down Royal, are of the quality you’d expect from a Saturday - and should yield some bets.
That said, the twin issues that impacted the pre-season, are still with us.
The weather continues to be all over the place - and it’s guesswork as to how the ground will be riding, at Ascot in particular.
Fitness is the other big concern.
I find it amazing that only one of the runners in the big race at Ascot, has already this season.
Obviously stables can get their horses fit first time - but for the likes of you and I, there’s a lot of guesswork involved in trying to judge just how fit they are…
Clearly, there is nothing we can do about either issue - but they will cause me to adopt a relatively a conservative approach when I issue the bets…
Ofcourse, that is for tomorrow: for this evening, some initial thoughts on the days big races…
Ascot
The going at Ascot is currently described as ‘good to soft’ - but there’s a lot of rain forecast for tomorrow morning.
How much and when, will obviously be key - so I’ll need to try and judge things in the morning…
1:20 (Class 3)
A fair novice handicap chase, in which Dr Sanderson has been installed early fav.
He won on his seasonal debut - but is 7lb higher tomorrow.
He showed the potential as a novice hurdler to be better than his current mark, so he’s not easily dismissed.
Dorking Boy won a decent handicap hurdle at Newbury last season - and is just 3lb higher tomorrow.
He ran well in a 3 horse race on his chasing debut earlier in the month, and if he can build on that, he could should go close.
Falco Blitz has some fair hurdles form, from last season - but will need to improve on that, if he is to win (which he might be capable of doing).
Sully Doc AA probably has the ability to win this (finished 6th in the corresponding race 12 months ago) - but needs to finish his races better than he did last season.
Maybe the wind op/tongue tie will help.
Smarty Wild ran in some decent handicap hurdles last season - but the suggestion is that he’s likely to need the run.
1:55 (Class 1)
Capeland and Ibleo head the early market - and it’s hard to disagree with that.
Capeland would have gone close in the race last season (but for a unfortunate/fortunate (!) incident at the last) - and even from 7lb higher should go close tomorrow in what looks a weaker renewal.
That said, I prefer the chances of Ibleo - particularly if it rains.
He was progressive last season - and Venetia is well capable of getting them ready first time (especially when there’s a decent pot on offer !).
Flaminger would also be of some interest, on heavy ground - with his fitness assured.
3:05 (Class 1)
This is going to be a hard race to get involved in, without a good feel for ground conditions.
Kid Commando would hold appeal - though he’s also entered at Carlisle on Sunday. He’s also likely to be a pretty short price (as he’s open to a lot of improvement).
Sebastapol is also unexposed - and open to plenty of improvement.
His best form has been on good ground - so a lot of rain would be a worry.
Rain would also be a worry for Teqany.
I considered suggesting him as a ante-post bet on Monday - but the prospect of a wet week, put me off.
The final one of interest, is Hang in There.
He was sent off at just 4/1 for a grade 1 novice hurdle, 3 runs ago.
A mark of 139 doesn’t look overly harsh…
3:40 (Class 1)
The big race on the card - and as I said in the intro, it seems amazing that every runner bar one, is making their seasonal debut.
That one is Townshend - who I suggested ante-post on Monday.
I still think he has a chance - as a previous course and distance winner, off a mark just 3lb lower.
He will also handle the ground - however it rides.
That said, the race is most likely to be won by one of the second season novices: Commanche Red or Whatmore.
This is a big pot - and I’d expect both to be fit.
Commanche Red was really impressive when winning at Kempton over Christmas - though the step up to 3 miles is an unknown.
Whatmore should have no issue with the trip - and I would expect him to run a big race.
Whatmore is closely handicapped with Black Corton and Mister Malarky - but he has the greater scope for improvement.
Half chances can be given to a number of the others, with Militarian probably the most interesting, at a fair price.
He won on his seasonal debut over the course and distance last season, and is only 1lb higher tomorrow.
Wetherby
They raced at Wetherby this afternoon - and the ground looked perfect.
Just on the soft side of good…
There is some rain forecast for tomorrow - but not much, so I wouldn’t expect the going to change significantly…
12:25 (Class 4)
I doubt I’ll suggest any bets in this race, because it is a class 4 contest - but I can’t resist offering a few opinions !
Tintern Theatre interests me most, on his second run back after a long break (presumably he was injured).
He’s won in the past, off a mark 17lb higher than he races off tomorrow - and whilst he showed nothing on his return last time, this looks a more suitable test.
First time cheek pieces are also an interesting move - and if you do have a bet in the race, you should at least save stakes on him (as he could bolt up !).
Absolutely Dillon is the next one of interest.
He’s not quite as well handicapped as Tintern Theatre - but he’s still dropped a fair bit in the handicap recently and didn’t run badly on his seasonal debut at Hexham.
Air Navigator is the final one on my short list.
He’s another with plenty of back class - and whilst this is his seasonal debut, I suspect he’ll be straight enough for it.
1:35 (Class 3)
Guy was massively impressive when winning on his seasonal and chasing debut at Huntingdon, earlier in the month.
He was raised 12lb for his efforts - but the assessor is just guessing.
He’s only 5 - and my guess is that there is still a fair bit of improvement left in him…
Minella for Me ran well to finish second to Court Master on his seasonal debut at Warwick.
I wasn’t overly taken by his finishing effort that day - but the winner is useful and it’s relatively decent form.
Bollin Ace could run well on his seasonal debut - provided he is fully tuned.
He only ran 3 times last season - but was placed on each occasion.
A second and a third in class 2 company, read well in the context of tomorrows race.
2:10 (Class 1)
Provided the ground doesn’t turn soft, Verdana Blue should win this.
She has in excess of 20lb in hand of all of her rivals - and is race fit.
Anything close to even money (4/5 would be fine !), would be very tempting indeed (if you play at those prices !).
Ofcourse, it was a similarly story a fortnight ago, when I expected her to win at Kempton.
However she was at least get beaten by a horse who had been placed in a Champion hurdle. She faces nothing approaching that calibre of rival, tomorrow.
I haven’t got a strong view on what’s likely to chase her home.
The market suggests Whitehotchillifil- - and she may well be the one: Though, if forced, I’d probably opt for the race fit Mrs Hyde.
2:45 (Class 1)
Roksana was another one that I considered suggesting on Monday - and she strikes me as the most likely winner of this.
She’s the best horse in the race, at the weights: will have no issue with the trip/ground - and I would expect Dan Skleton will have her spot on.
Lisnagar Oscar was a surprise winner on last seasons stayers hurdle - and whilst I don’t think that was a fluke, it remains to be seen, just how fit he will be for his seasonal debut, tomorrow.
That’s even more the case for Next Destination.
He was a really talented novice hurdler for Willie Mullins - but hasn’t run for well over 2 years and makes his debut for Paul Nichols.
I’ll be surprised if he doesn’t need the run…
Wholestone used to have the ability to go close in a race like this - but whether he retains it, is a different matter.
As a consequence, Decor Irlandais is probably the other one to be interested in.
He’ll need to improve to feature - but he did just that, all last season as a novice - and will be fit, following a couple of recent runs.
3:20 (Class 1)
If he’s fit enough to do himself justice, then Cryname should bolt up in this.
He’s at least 13lb superior to all of his rivals - and will be well suited by the trip/ground.
Going left handed is a concern - but when you are that much better than the opposition, it shouldn’t really matter !
What will matter, is his level of fitness. He beat Altior on his seasonal debut 12 months ago - but I can’t seem him being anywhere near as forward tomorrow.
His class might still get him through - but more likely, he will travel well to the second last and then blow up…
The betting says Vindication is most likely to take advantage if Cryname isn’t spot on - and despite the fact he also looks best when going right handed, I suspect that will be the case.
Keeper Hill is of some interest, back at 3 miles over fences: whilst I would love to see La Bague au Roi run well.
I also think she can - though I’ll be a little surprised if she can run well enough to win.
They raced at Wetherby this afternoon - and the ground looked perfect.
Just on the soft side of good…
There is some rain forecast for tomorrow - but not much, so I wouldn’t expect the going to change significantly…
12:25 (Class 4)
I doubt I’ll suggest any bets in this race, because it is a class 4 contest - but I can’t resist offering a few opinions !
Tintern Theatre interests me most, on his second run back after a long break (presumably he was injured).
He’s won in the past, off a mark 17lb higher than he races off tomorrow - and whilst he showed nothing on his return last time, this looks a more suitable test.
First time cheek pieces are also an interesting move - and if you do have a bet in the race, you should at least save stakes on him (as he could bolt up !).
Absolutely Dillon is the next one of interest.
He’s not quite as well handicapped as Tintern Theatre - but he’s still dropped a fair bit in the handicap recently and didn’t run badly on his seasonal debut at Hexham.
Air Navigator is the final one on my short list.
He’s another with plenty of back class - and whilst this is his seasonal debut, I suspect he’ll be straight enough for it.
1:35 (Class 3)
Guy was massively impressive when winning on his seasonal and chasing debut at Huntingdon, earlier in the month.
He was raised 12lb for his efforts - but the assessor is just guessing.
He’s only 5 - and my guess is that there is still a fair bit of improvement left in him…
Minella for Me ran well to finish second to Court Master on his seasonal debut at Warwick.
I wasn’t overly taken by his finishing effort that day - but the winner is useful and it’s relatively decent form.
Bollin Ace could run well on his seasonal debut - provided he is fully tuned.
He only ran 3 times last season - but was placed on each occasion.
A second and a third in class 2 company, read well in the context of tomorrows race.
2:10 (Class 1)
Provided the ground doesn’t turn soft, Verdana Blue should win this.
She has in excess of 20lb in hand of all of her rivals - and is race fit.
Anything close to even money (4/5 would be fine !), would be very tempting indeed (if you play at those prices !).
Ofcourse, it was a similarly story a fortnight ago, when I expected her to win at Kempton.
However she was at least get beaten by a horse who had been placed in a Champion hurdle. She faces nothing approaching that calibre of rival, tomorrow.
I haven’t got a strong view on what’s likely to chase her home.
The market suggests Whitehotchillifil- - and she may well be the one: Though, if forced, I’d probably opt for the race fit Mrs Hyde.
2:45 (Class 1)
Roksana was another one that I considered suggesting on Monday - and she strikes me as the most likely winner of this.
She’s the best horse in the race, at the weights: will have no issue with the trip/ground - and I would expect Dan Skleton will have her spot on.
Lisnagar Oscar was a surprise winner on last seasons stayers hurdle - and whilst I don’t think that was a fluke, it remains to be seen, just how fit he will be for his seasonal debut, tomorrow.
That’s even more the case for Next Destination.
He was a really talented novice hurdler for Willie Mullins - but hasn’t run for well over 2 years and makes his debut for Paul Nichols.
I’ll be surprised if he doesn’t need the run…
Wholestone used to have the ability to go close in a race like this - but whether he retains it, is a different matter.
As a consequence, Decor Irlandais is probably the other one to be interested in.
He’ll need to improve to feature - but he did just that, all last season as a novice - and will be fit, following a couple of recent runs.
3:20 (Class 1)
If he’s fit enough to do himself justice, then Cryname should bolt up in this.
He’s at least 13lb superior to all of his rivals - and will be well suited by the trip/ground.
Going left handed is a concern - but when you are that much better than the opposition, it shouldn’t really matter !
What will matter, is his level of fitness. He beat Altior on his seasonal debut 12 months ago - but I can’t seem him being anywhere near as forward tomorrow.
His class might still get him through - but more likely, he will travel well to the second last and then blow up…
The betting says Vindication is most likely to take advantage if Cryname isn’t spot on - and despite the fact he also looks best when going right handed, I suspect that will be the case.
Keeper Hill is of some interest, back at 3 miles over fences: whilst I would love to see La Bague au Roi run well.
I also think she can - though I’ll be a little surprised if she can run well enough to win.
Down Royal
Like Wetherby, they raced at the course today (which is always a help, when trying to assess the going)
Conditions looked perfect - though it was slightly concerning that they had to move the rails because of a false patch of ground.
Hopefully that was a contained issue…
2:25 (Grade 1)
Delta Work is the current favourite for the race - but I’ll be a little surprised, if that is the case come the off.
Granted, he’s the highest rated horse in the race - but historically, he’s come on for his first run of the season - and I also suspect he would prefer a bit more of a test.
It’s anyones guess what you’ll get with Presenting Percy, on his first run for Gordon Elliott.
He has the natural ability to just about win - but I suspect he’ll need the outing.
I’ll be surprised if Chris’s Dream needs the outing - and I make him just about the most likely winner.
His form when fresh is exceptional - and tomorrows test should be perfect for him.
The Storyteller is the final one worth considering.
His best form is probably a few pounds shy of the market principals - but he’ll be hard fit, following a number of recent runs - and that is a big positive for his chances.
3:00 (Grade 2)
This looks to lie between Samcro and Easy Game.
Samcro is the more talented - but Easy Game will have a fitness advantage.
Gordon Elliott seems to be gradually getting to grips with Samcros needs - and I would expect him to come out on top.
Sizing Potsie is also of some interest, at a price.
He probably won’t be good enough to beat the market leaders - but he has lots of potential and I wouldn’t be surprised if he ran a big race.
3:35
He’s unlikely to be much of a price, but assuming he jumps round, I can’t see Paranoid getting beaten in this.
He won a handicap hurdle over 2m4f last time, on his debut for Elliott - but the horse wants 3 miles and fences (which he gets tomorrow).
Touch of Oscar looks the only feasible danger - and a price of around 6/4 on Paranoid, looks fair.
Ayr
1:42 (Class 3)
Caltex is likely to take some beating in this.
He was very impressive when scoring on his debut for Michael Scudamore, at Leicester in February - and I suspect he’ll be able to cope with the subsequent 9lb rise.
He’s run well fresh in the past - and I doubt he’d be sent such a long way, if he wasn’t ready to do himself justice.
The issue will be the price - though anything above 2/1 would be worth considering…
Pougne Bobbi is the other one of interest.
He’s not shown a lot in 2 runs for Keith Dalgleish, but based on his old form (when with Nicky Henderson) he is now very well handicapped (6lb lower than his last winning mark)
2:52 (Class 3)
Drumconnor Lad has a fitness advantage over most of his rivals in this, and that could prove crucial.
He ran in the Tote Silver trophy at Chepstow earlier this month - an although he finished last, the outing should have blown away the cobwebs.
He won over tomorrows course and distance, back in March - and the 5lb rise he picked up for that, is more than offset by his riders 7lb claim.
Saint Leo is the other one of interest, on his first run for Lucinda Russell.
He’s a horse I’ve been following for 2 seasons - and I suspect he is a fair bit better than his current mark of 122.
Whether he’ll be ready to show that tomorrow, on his first run for nearly a year, is a different matter - but I’ll be surprised if he’s not winning soon…
Like Wetherby, they raced at the course today (which is always a help, when trying to assess the going)
Conditions looked perfect - though it was slightly concerning that they had to move the rails because of a false patch of ground.
Hopefully that was a contained issue…
2:25 (Grade 1)
Delta Work is the current favourite for the race - but I’ll be a little surprised, if that is the case come the off.
Granted, he’s the highest rated horse in the race - but historically, he’s come on for his first run of the season - and I also suspect he would prefer a bit more of a test.
It’s anyones guess what you’ll get with Presenting Percy, on his first run for Gordon Elliott.
He has the natural ability to just about win - but I suspect he’ll need the outing.
I’ll be surprised if Chris’s Dream needs the outing - and I make him just about the most likely winner.
His form when fresh is exceptional - and tomorrows test should be perfect for him.
The Storyteller is the final one worth considering.
His best form is probably a few pounds shy of the market principals - but he’ll be hard fit, following a number of recent runs - and that is a big positive for his chances.
3:00 (Grade 2)
This looks to lie between Samcro and Easy Game.
Samcro is the more talented - but Easy Game will have a fitness advantage.
Gordon Elliott seems to be gradually getting to grips with Samcros needs - and I would expect him to come out on top.
Sizing Potsie is also of some interest, at a price.
He probably won’t be good enough to beat the market leaders - but he has lots of potential and I wouldn’t be surprised if he ran a big race.
3:35
He’s unlikely to be much of a price, but assuming he jumps round, I can’t see Paranoid getting beaten in this.
He won a handicap hurdle over 2m4f last time, on his debut for Elliott - but the horse wants 3 miles and fences (which he gets tomorrow).
Touch of Oscar looks the only feasible danger - and a price of around 6/4 on Paranoid, looks fair.
Ayr
1:42 (Class 3)
Caltex is likely to take some beating in this.
He was very impressive when scoring on his debut for Michael Scudamore, at Leicester in February - and I suspect he’ll be able to cope with the subsequent 9lb rise.
He’s run well fresh in the past - and I doubt he’d be sent such a long way, if he wasn’t ready to do himself justice.
The issue will be the price - though anything above 2/1 would be worth considering…
Pougne Bobbi is the other one of interest.
He’s not shown a lot in 2 runs for Keith Dalgleish, but based on his old form (when with Nicky Henderson) he is now very well handicapped (6lb lower than his last winning mark)
2:52 (Class 3)
Drumconnor Lad has a fitness advantage over most of his rivals in this, and that could prove crucial.
He ran in the Tote Silver trophy at Chepstow earlier this month - an although he finished last, the outing should have blown away the cobwebs.
He won over tomorrows course and distance, back in March - and the 5lb rise he picked up for that, is more than offset by his riders 7lb claim.
Saint Leo is the other one of interest, on his first run for Lucinda Russell.
He’s a horse I’ve been following for 2 seasons - and I suspect he is a fair bit better than his current mark of 122.
Whether he’ll be ready to show that tomorrow, on his first run for nearly a year, is a different matter - but I’ll be surprised if he’s not winning soon…
No comments:
Post a Comment