As frustrating opening days go, today was right up there !
Of the 4 Best bets: 2 finished second - and 2 ran absolute shockers !
Both Ibleo and Chris’s Dream, were ahead 10 yards from the line in their respective races - but both ended up losing out in bobbing finishes.
Ibleo traded at 1.21 in-running; whilst Chris’s Dream touched 1.11
I take consolation from the fact that over the course of the season, you can expect slightly more winners, than odds on IR losers.
We are therefore already owed a couple !!
In terms of advised prices, then they all held up pretty well - as I expected.
In truth, they should have done !
None of the prices were stand outs - or even close.
I expected them all to be bettered at some point during the afternoon - and with the exception of Saint Leo (who was the subject of a crazy level of support), I suspect they were…
More of an issue, was BSP.
As I said on the forum, there was far more being requested for those 4 horses, in their respective races - than on anything else in their fields (10 time more !).
That will affect the BSP - though it’s hard to say by exactly how much…
I monitored the ‘1 min to off’ price and BSP, for the 4 of them - and it was as follows:
Dorking Boy 5.4 to 5.3
Ibleo 3.85 to 3.65
Chris’s Dream 4.1 to 3.6
Saint Leo 4.5 to 4.2
As you can see, it was lower for them all - by an average of around 10% - which will make a big difference to your P&L at the end of the season.
I appreciate that BSP is the only option for some of you (other than betting at the time of issue) - but if you are able to bet into the Live markets, pre-race, then it will almost certainly work out better…
As for tomorrow: there are 3 NH meetings across the UK & Ireland - and 2 of them (Carlisle & Cork) host some fair races.
I’ll post thoughts for Carlisle now - and Cork, later (or maybe even early tomorrow morning)…
Carlisle
The going is described as ‘Heavy, soft in places’ and with more rain forecast, it’s likely to be very hard work.
1:35
Historically, this has tended to be a good race - but this years field is a touch disappointing (numerically, at least)…
Alnadam has been installed favourite - and looks the most likely winner.
His final run last season, when betting Demachine, now looks very good (the winner recently took a competitive race at Bangor, on his chasing debut)
He’s an ex PTP winner; who has also won on heavy ground - and whilst this is his seasonal debut, Dan Skelton is likely to have him spot on.
There’s not a lot to dislike…
Most of the others can be given some kind of chance, but Chambard strikes me as the most likely danger.
This is his second season as a novice chaser - so he has plenty of experience.
He finished runner up 3 times last season - and on all 3 occasions was beaten by decent sorts.
I suspect that something will beat him again tomorrow - but he does sets a fair standard.
2:40
This is a really good race - but probably one to watch, rather than bet in…
I’m not convinced that either Sam Brown or Imperial Aura will be able to give weight to 3 quality rivals, so I think Brewinupastorm, Black Op and Windsor Avenue are the ones to focus on.
It’s hard to choose between the 3 - and ultimately, it’s likely to boil down to fitness.
I’d probably just side with Black Op - because I would expect him to be ready for this and he should handle the heavy going.
Heavy ground might be an issue for Brewinupastorm (he’s unproven on such a surface) - but if it is, then I would expect him to be withdrawn.
Windsor Avenue should have no issue with heavy - and also returns on the back of a wind op.
He’s the value at the early prices (around 7/1) - though I probably fancy him least of the 3.
3:10
There will be a big R4 in this race once Kid Commando is taken out (which I assume he will be, after his win at Ascot this afternoon).
There’s nothing in the race that massively grabs me - though Mount Mews looks moderately interesting, at a likely big price.
He’s making his seasonal debut - but has very good form when fresh.
He also handles heavy ground - and is well handicapped.
On the flip side, he’s shown a bit of temperament - could be in slight decline - and has had a wind op !
Nothing else in the race really jumps out.
West to the Bridge probably should have won at Uttoxeter last time - and may well appreciate the drop back in trip. However, with Kid Commando out of the race, he’s likely to be vying for favouritism…
3:45
With Anthony Honeyball in such hot form (6 winners from his last 12 runners), it’s hard to ignore the claims of Sojourn…
He’s very short on experience (he’s only run twice over fences - and twice more over hurdles) - but he handled heavy ground well, when winning on his penultimate outing at Market Rasen.
He’s also open to a huge amount of improvement - and despite it being his seasonal debut, fitness is unlikely to be an issue.
Roll Again looked a horse going places - until he fell at Kempton over Christmas.
His 2 subsequent runs were disappointing - but if he returns refreshed, then he should go well, off a reduced handicap mark.
The ground will be fine for him - and whilst he is stepping up in trip, I’d expect him to cope with that.
Debecee threatened to be a really good horse.
On his most recent run, he was sent off favourite for a class 1 event on the under card of the 2019 Grand National.
He was pulled up that day - and hasn’t been seen since (18 months).
Clearly fitness is the big unknown - and the late market will probably advise on that score.
However, Tim Vaughan is travelling a long way with him, so he has to be of some interest (at least at this point in time !)
Cork
2:15 (Listed)
On official ratings, Goodbye Someday is the one to beat in this - but I’m not sure that’s how it will work out…
He has a rating of 141 - following a win in a handicap at Kilbeggan in September - and finished third in a grade 3 contest last time.
That’s fair form - although he’s unproven over todays trip.
My expectation is that one of the less exposed runners will improve past him…
Ragnar Lodbrok and Young Ted look the 2 to focus on.
The former won on his hurdling debut at Galway, last month and created a good impression in so doing.
He’ll need to step up on that effort - but he represents top connections and it’s quite likely he will.
Young Ted is more exposed - and is officially rated nearly a stone inferior to Goodbye Someday.
However, I suspect he’s a fair bit better than that.
He ran well in a strong handicap at the Punchestown festival, 18 months ago - and was a very comfortable winner of a maiden hurdle on his return, in September.
His stable remains in good from and he looks the value call in the race…
2:46 (Grade 3)
Trainwreck sets the standard for this, based on his second placing in a hot handicap at the Dublin racing festival.
He subsequently finished down the field in the Cheltenham novice handicap - but I wouldn’t hold that against him.
There’s a question mark over his ability to perform at his best when fresh - and he has less scope for improvement than many in the field - but if he is ready to do himself justice, then he’s still the one to beat.
Home by the Leas is the early favourite - and that’s understandable.
He was a fair novice hurdler last season - and has won his only chase, this campaign.
He’s also the youngest member of the field and so open to plenty of improvement.
Foxy Jacks unseated in the race won by Home by the Leas - but then hacked up in a beginners chase at Cork.
He finished midfield in the Albert Bartlett at the Cheltenham festival, so clearly has a fair level of ability.
Heaven Help Us finished in a similar position, in last seasons Supreme novice hurdle and won on her second outing over fences, having finished runner up, first time at Sligo.
She an admirable mare, with a really good attitude and looks to have a decent chance.
3:20 (Grade B)
Tokyo Getaway and Deadheat stand out in this, as 2 with huge scope for improvement.
The former is only 6 - and has run just 3 times over fences, under rules.
She is also unproven over todays trip.
However, she was staying on strongly over 3 miles on her seasonal debut, suggesting that todays extra 4 furlongs would suit.
Deadheat is a year older - and whilst he has only run 4 times for current connections, he has a fair bit more experience, in his native France.
He’s won half of his races in Ireland - and his mark has risen 21lb as a consequence.
However, it’s impossible to know whether the handicapper has caught up with him yet…
High Sparrow disappointed on his most recent outing in the Kerry National - but prior to that had looked an improved performer, with 2 good runs at Kilbeggan.
He’ll need to bounce back today, but he my be capable of doing that.
Out Sam won this race 2 years ago, off a 6 lb higher mark.
He’s 11 now, so may be starting to decline - however, he was travelling really well, until he fell at the fourth last on his return, 3 weeks ago.
He appears to be Jack Kennedys chosen one of Gordon Elliotts 3 runners - and provided he has got over his fall, I could see him running very well.
2:15 (Listed)
On official ratings, Goodbye Someday is the one to beat in this - but I’m not sure that’s how it will work out…
He has a rating of 141 - following a win in a handicap at Kilbeggan in September - and finished third in a grade 3 contest last time.
That’s fair form - although he’s unproven over todays trip.
My expectation is that one of the less exposed runners will improve past him…
Ragnar Lodbrok and Young Ted look the 2 to focus on.
The former won on his hurdling debut at Galway, last month and created a good impression in so doing.
He’ll need to step up on that effort - but he represents top connections and it’s quite likely he will.
Young Ted is more exposed - and is officially rated nearly a stone inferior to Goodbye Someday.
However, I suspect he’s a fair bit better than that.
He ran well in a strong handicap at the Punchestown festival, 18 months ago - and was a very comfortable winner of a maiden hurdle on his return, in September.
His stable remains in good from and he looks the value call in the race…
2:46 (Grade 3)
Trainwreck sets the standard for this, based on his second placing in a hot handicap at the Dublin racing festival.
He subsequently finished down the field in the Cheltenham novice handicap - but I wouldn’t hold that against him.
There’s a question mark over his ability to perform at his best when fresh - and he has less scope for improvement than many in the field - but if he is ready to do himself justice, then he’s still the one to beat.
Home by the Leas is the early favourite - and that’s understandable.
He was a fair novice hurdler last season - and has won his only chase, this campaign.
He’s also the youngest member of the field and so open to plenty of improvement.
Foxy Jacks unseated in the race won by Home by the Leas - but then hacked up in a beginners chase at Cork.
He finished midfield in the Albert Bartlett at the Cheltenham festival, so clearly has a fair level of ability.
Heaven Help Us finished in a similar position, in last seasons Supreme novice hurdle and won on her second outing over fences, having finished runner up, first time at Sligo.
She an admirable mare, with a really good attitude and looks to have a decent chance.
3:20 (Grade B)
Tokyo Getaway and Deadheat stand out in this, as 2 with huge scope for improvement.
The former is only 6 - and has run just 3 times over fences, under rules.
She is also unproven over todays trip.
However, she was staying on strongly over 3 miles on her seasonal debut, suggesting that todays extra 4 furlongs would suit.
Deadheat is a year older - and whilst he has only run 4 times for current connections, he has a fair bit more experience, in his native France.
He’s won half of his races in Ireland - and his mark has risen 21lb as a consequence.
However, it’s impossible to know whether the handicapper has caught up with him yet…
High Sparrow disappointed on his most recent outing in the Kerry National - but prior to that had looked an improved performer, with 2 good runs at Kilbeggan.
He’ll need to bounce back today, but he my be capable of doing that.
Out Sam won this race 2 years ago, off a 6 lb higher mark.
He’s 11 now, so may be starting to decline - however, he was travelling really well, until he fell at the fourth last on his return, 3 weeks ago.
He appears to be Jack Kennedys chosen one of Gordon Elliotts 3 runners - and provided he has got over his fall, I could see him running very well.
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